Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 07/09, 01:15

Prediction: Real Espana vs Lobos UPNFM

Team pages: Real Espana · Lobos UPNFM

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Real Espana2.18

Lobos UPNFM0.78

1X2

69% 19% 12%

Real Espana Draw Lobos UPNFM

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Espana 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLWLDWWDDW

Lobos UPNFM 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLDDLL

Head-to-head

Real Espana 4–2–0 Lobos UPNFM (6 last)

Lobos UPNFM1-1Real Espana
Real Espana4-3Lobos UPNFM
Lobos UPNFM0-0Real Espana
Real Espana2-0Lobos UPNFM
Real Espana2-1Lobos UPNFM
Lobos UPNFM3-4Real Espana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Espana 1560 · Lobos UPNFM 1423

	Real Espana	Draw	Lobos UPNFM
Our model	69%	20%	11%
Market	69%	19%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Espana (rating 1560 vs 1423).
H2H favours Real Espana: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Espana	Lobos UPNFM
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	0.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.7	1.4 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.5	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.28

X4.75

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
07:53 +3’	1.28	4.75	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Espana 4–2–0 Lobos UPNFM

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Lobos UPNFM	1-1 HT 1-0	Real Espana
21/02/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Real Espana	4-3 HT 2-0	Lobos UPNFM
07/12/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Lobos UPNFM	0-0 HT 0-0	Real Espana
22/09/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Real Espana	2-0 HT 1-0	Lobos UPNFM
13/04/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Real Espana	2-1 HT 2-1	Lobos UPNFM
14/02/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Lobos UPNFM	3-4 HT 1-3	Real Espana

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Olimpia	6	4	2	0	15	6	14
2	Real Espana	5	3	2	0	9	3	11
3	CD Marathon	5	3	2	0	6	3	11
4	Motagua	5	3	0	2	10	7	9
5	Estrella Roja	5	2	2	1	11	7	8
6	Olancho FC	5	2	2	1	5	4	8
7	Genesis de Comayagua	5	2	1	2	7	5	7
8	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	5	1	2	2	5	6	5
9	CD Platense	6	1	1	4	4	14	4
10	Atletico Choloma	5	1	0	4	4	7	3
11	Juticalpa	5	1	0	4	4	12	3
12	Lobos UPNFM	5	0	2	3	4	10	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Espana	Lobos UPNFM
Genesis de Comayagua	2-0 W	0-1 L
CD Platense	3-0 W	1-4 L
CD Olimpia	2-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Real Espana (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Espana

WLWLDWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-1	3	6	W
23/08	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	1-1	1	4	D
16/08	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
09/08	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
01/08	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	3-0	5	0	W
19/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
13/05	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-3	4	4	L
10/05	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	3-1	5	2	W
03/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-1	2	9	L
01/05	CD Victoria Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	2-1	7	4	W

Lobos UPNFM

DLLLWLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
22/08	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-3	1-4	7	4	L
16/08	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	2-2	3	3	D
09/08	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
03/08	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	1	2	L
01/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
27/04	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
24/04	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
19/04	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-4	4	3	L
13/04	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Espana vs Lobos UPNFM?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Espana win (69%). Probabilities: Real Espana 69%, draw 19%, Lobos UPNFM 12%.

How many goals are expected in Real Espana vs Lobos UPNFM?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Real Espana 2.18 · Lobos UPNFM 0.78), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Espana vs Lobos UPNFM?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.