Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 05/09, 03:00

Prediction: Atletico Choloma vs Olancho FC

Team pages: Atletico Choloma · Olancho FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Atletico Choloma1.4

Olancho FC1.98

1X2

25% 25% 49%

Atletico Choloma Draw Olancho FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Choloma 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLWLLLWL

Olancho FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLWLDWDWDL

Head-to-head

Atletico Choloma 0–1–4 Olancho FC (5 last)

Olancho FC3-1Atletico Choloma
Atletico Choloma0-1Olancho FC
Atletico Choloma0-4Olancho FC
Olancho FC6-2Atletico Choloma
Olancho FC1-1Atletico Choloma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Choloma 1444 · Olancho FC 1550

	Atletico Choloma	Draw	Olancho FC
Our model	26%	24%	50%
Market	25%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Olancho FC (rating 1444 vs 1550).
H2H favours Olancho FC: 4-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Choloma	Olancho FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.9	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.9	1.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.40

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.02

2 (-0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 02:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:39 +2’	3.50	3.50	1.83
14:16 +6’	3.50	3.50	1.85▲
22:07 +8’	3.20▼	3.40▼	1.95▲
02:25 +1’	3.60▲	3.40	1.83▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Choloma 0–1–4 Olancho FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Olancho FC	3-1 HT 2-1	Atletico Choloma
12/02/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Atletico Choloma	0-1 HT 0-0	Olancho FC
07/12/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Atletico Choloma	0-4 HT 0-3	Olancho FC
21/09/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Olancho FC	6-2 HT 5-1	Atletico Choloma
24/04/22 Honduras Liga de Ascenso	Olancho FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Choloma

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Marathon	5	3	2	0	6	3	11
2	CD Olimpia	4	3	1	0	9	3	10
3	Motagua	5	3	0	2	10	7	9
4	Real Espana	4	2	2	0	7	2	8
5	Olancho FC	5	2	2	1	5	4	8
6	Estrella Roja	4	2	1	1	9	5	7
7	Genesis de Comayagua	5	2	1	2	7	5	7
8	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	5	1	2	2	5	6	5
9	CD Platense	5	1	1	3	3	10	4
10	Atletico Choloma	4	1	0	3	3	5	3
11	Juticalpa	5	1	0	4	4	12	3
12	Lobos UPNFM	5	0	2	3	4	10	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Choloma	Olancho FC
Genesis de Comayagua	0-2 L	1-1 D
Motagua	1-5 L	1-2 L
CD Olimpia	1-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Olancho FC (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Choloma

WWLLWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	1-2	5	6	L
23/08	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-0	9	9	W
16/08	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	12	8	L
10/08	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	1-2	1-2	2	7	L
01/08	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
01/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
27/04	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-3	1-5	4	4	L
19/04	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
14/04	CD Victoria Honduras Liga Nacional	3-0	5-2	4	4	W
10/04	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	3-2	0	10	W

Olancho FC

DLWLDWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-2	5	3	L
24/08	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
17/08	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
09/08	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
03/08	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
15/05	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
13/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	0	4	L
10/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
07/05	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-2	1-3	7	4	L
01/05	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	2-2	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Choloma vs Olancho FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Olancho FC win (49%). Probabilities: Atletico Choloma 25%, draw 25%, Olancho FC 49%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Choloma vs Olancho FC?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Atletico Choloma 1.4 · Olancho FC 1.98), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Choloma vs Olancho FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.