Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 07/09, 03:30

Prediction: Juticalpa vs Genesis de Comayagua

Team pages: Juticalpa · Genesis de Comayagua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Juticalpa1.03

Genesis de Comayagua1.54

1X2

25% 27% 48%

Juticalpa Draw Genesis de Comayagua

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Juticalpa 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LDLLWLLLLW

Genesis de Comayagua 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWDLWLWDL

Head-to-head

Juticalpa 1–3–0 Genesis de Comayagua (4 last)

Genesis de Comayagua0-1Juticalpa
Juticalpa1-1Genesis de Comayagua
Genesis de Comayagua2-2Juticalpa
Juticalpa1-1Genesis de Comayagua

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Juticalpa 1441 · Genesis de Comayagua 1507

	Juticalpa	Draw	Genesis de Comayagua
Our model	24%	28%	48%
Market	25%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Genesis de Comayagua (rating 1441 vs 1507).
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Juticalpa	Genesis de Comayagua
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.1	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.7	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	2.4 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.40

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.90 → 1.85▼	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
06:37 +29’	3.40	3.40	1.90
08:00 +8’	3.60▲	3.40	1.85▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Juticalpa 1–3–0 Genesis de Comayagua

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Genesis de Comayagua	0-1 HT 0-1	Juticalpa
07/02/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Juticalpa	1-1 HT 1-1	Genesis de Comayagua
03/12/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Genesis de Comayagua	2-2 HT 1-1	Juticalpa
25/09/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Juticalpa	1-1 HT 1-0	Genesis de Comayagua

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Olimpia	6	4	2	0	15	6	14
2	Real Espana	5	3	2	0	9	3	11
3	CD Marathon	5	3	2	0	6	3	11
4	Motagua	5	3	0	2	10	7	9
5	Estrella Roja	5	2	2	1	11	7	8
6	Olancho FC	5	2	2	1	5	4	8
7	Genesis de Comayagua	5	2	1	2	7	5	7
8	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	5	1	2	2	5	6	5
9	CD Platense	6	1	1	4	4	14	4
10	Atletico Choloma	5	1	0	4	4	7	3
11	Juticalpa	5	1	0	4	4	12	3
12	Lobos UPNFM	5	0	2	3	4	10	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Juticalpa	Genesis de Comayagua
Olancho FC	0-1 L	1-1 D
Motagua	0-3 L	1-2 L
CD Platense	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Genesis de Comayagua (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Juticalpa

LDLLWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
23/08	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	2-5	–	–	L
17/08	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
09/08	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	1-3	14	5	L
02/08	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-3	0	2	L
27/04	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/04	CD Victoria Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
20/04	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
16/04	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
09/04	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-4	0-4	2	1	L

Genesis de Comayagua

DDWDLWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-2	4	1	L
22/08	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	10	4	D
15/08	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	3-0	8	4	W
09/08	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	1	4	L
01/08	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-0	2	2	W
19/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
15/05	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
07/05	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	2-1	3-1	1	4	W
04/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
01/05	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	2-2	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Juticalpa vs Genesis de Comayagua?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Genesis de Comayagua win (48%). Probabilities: Juticalpa 25%, draw 27%, Genesis de Comayagua 48%.

How many goals are expected in Juticalpa vs Genesis de Comayagua?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Juticalpa 1.03 · Genesis de Comayagua 1.54), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Juticalpa vs Genesis de Comayagua?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.