Football · Scotland League Challenge Cup · 11/08, 20:45

Prediction: Dumbarton vs Airdrieonians

Team pages: Dumbarton · Airdrieonians

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

Dumbarton1.19

Airdrieonians2.14

1X2

20% 22% 58%

Dumbarton Draw Airdrieonians

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Dumbarton 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLWLW

Airdrieonians 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLWLDD

Head-to-head

Dumbarton 0–6 Airdrieonians (6 last)

Dumbarton1-5Airdrieonians
Dumbarton3-4Airdrieonians
Airdrieonians2-0Dumbarton
Airdrieonians3-2Dumbarton
Dumbarton0-1Airdrieonians
Airdrieonians3-2Dumbarton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dumbarton 1424 · Airdrieonians 1455

	Dumbarton	Draw	Airdrieonians
Our model	20%	22%	58%
Market	20%	21%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Airdrieonians: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dumbarton	Airdrieonians
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.8	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.7	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/10/80%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.6	2.3 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.20

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:05 +2’	4.50	4.20	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Dumbarton 0–0–6 Airdrieonians

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/25 Scotland FA Cup	Dumbarton	1-5 HT 0-2	Airdrieonians
20/07/24 Scotland League Cup	Dumbarton	3-4 HT 1-1	Airdrieonians
15/07/23 Scotland League Cup	Airdrieonians	2-0 HT 0-0	Dumbarton
16/04/22 Scotland League One	Airdrieonians	3-2 HT 2-1	Dumbarton
02/01/22 Scotland League One	Dumbarton	0-1 HT 0-0	Airdrieonians
23/10/21 Scotland League One	Airdrieonians	3-2 HT 1-1	Dumbarton

Standings · Scotland League Challenge Cup

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Aberdeen B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Airdrieonians	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alloa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Annan Athletic	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Banks O'Dee	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Berwick Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bonnyrigg Rose	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Celtic B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Clachnacuddin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Clyde	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Clydebank FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cove Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cowdenbeath	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cumbernauld Colts	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dumbarton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dundee B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dundee Utd B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	East Fife	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	East Kilbride	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Edinburgh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Elgin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Forfar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Formartine United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fraserburgh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gala Fairydean	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rangers B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hamilton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hearts B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hibernian B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kelty Hearts	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kilmarnock B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Montrose	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Motherwell B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Peterhead	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Queen of South	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ross County	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Spartans	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	St Mirren B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stirling	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stranraer	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dumbarton	Airdrieonians
Clyde	1-0 W	0-1 L
Cove Rangers	2-0 W	0-0 D
East Kilbride	3-5 L	1-1 D
Ayr	0-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Dumbarton

LLLLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Clyde Scotland League Two	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
01/08	Stirling Scotland League Two	0-1	0-2	8	6	L
25/07	Cove Rangers Scotland League Cup	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
18/07	East Kilbride Scotland League Cup	1-3	3-5	2	2	L
14/07	Dunfermline Scotland League Cup	0-2	1-4	3	1	L
11/07	St Mirren Scotland League Cup	0-2	0-4	0	0	L
30/06	Ayr UK Friendlies	0-2	0-3	6	0	L
20/06	Linlithgow Rose Club Friendly List	1-2	3-4	–	–	L
02/05	FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two	0-4	0-5	–	–	L
25/04	East Kilbride Scotland League Two	0-1	0-1	3	4	L

Airdrieonians

LDLLLLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	East Kilbride Scotland League One	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
01/08	Cove Rangers Scotland League One	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
25/07	Ross County Scotland League Cup	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
18/07	Annan Athletic Scotland League Cup	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
14/07	Clyde Scotland League Cup	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
11/07	Dundee Scotland League Cup	2-1	2-4	3	2	L
07/07	Falkirk UK Friendlies	1-0	1-2	3	0	L
04/07	Ayr UK Friendlies	0-0	1-2	3	0	L
27/06	Elgin UK Friendlies	1-1	1-1	6	0	D
09/05	Alloa Scotland Championship Play-Offs	0-1	1-2	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dumbarton vs Airdrieonians?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Airdrieonians win (58%). Probabilities: Dumbarton 20%, draw 22%, Airdrieonians 58%.

How many goals are expected in Dumbarton vs Airdrieonians?

The model expects 3.33 goals (Dumbarton 1.19 · Airdrieonians 2.14), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Dumbarton vs Airdrieonians?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.