Football · Scotland League Challenge Cup · 11/08, 20:45

Prediction: Elgin vs Ross County

Team pages: Elgin · Ross County

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

Elgin1.19

Ross County2.41

1X2

16% 20% 63%

Elgin Draw Ross County

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Elgin 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Ross County 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Elgin 0–5 Ross County (5 last)

Elgin0-5Ross County
Elgin1-4Ross County
Ross County2-0Elgin
Elgin0-1Ross County
Elgin3-5Ross County

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elgin 1510 · Ross County 1622

	Elgin	Draw	Ross County
Our model	17%	20%	63%
Market	16%	21%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ross County (rating 1510 vs 1622).
H2H favours Ross County: 5-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Elgin	Ross County
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	2.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/44/22%	56/22/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.1	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.33

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.88

2 (-1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:50 +16’	5.50	4.33	1.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Elgin 0–0–5 Ross County

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/07/21 Club Friendly List	Elgin	0-5 HT 0-1	Ross County
10/11/20 Scotland League Cup	Elgin	1-4 HT 0-2	Ross County
14/07/18 Scotland League Cup	Ross County	2-0 HT 0-0	Elgin
01/07/17 UK Friendlies	Elgin	0-1 HT 0-0	Ross County
11/07/15 Club Friendly List	Elgin	3-5 HT 3-2	Ross County

Standings · Scotland League Challenge Cup

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Aberdeen B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Airdrieonians	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alloa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Annan Athletic	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Banks O'Dee	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Berwick Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bonnyrigg Rose	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Celtic B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Clachnacuddin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Clyde	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Clydebank FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cove Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cowdenbeath	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cumbernauld Colts	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dumbarton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dundee B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dundee Utd B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	East Fife	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	East Kilbride	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Edinburgh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Elgin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Forfar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Formartine United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fraserburgh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gala Fairydean	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rangers B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hamilton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hearts B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hibernian B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kelty Hearts	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kilmarnock B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Montrose	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Motherwell B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Peterhead	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Queen of South	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ross County	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Spartans	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	St Mirren B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stirling	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stranraer	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Elgin	Ross County
Peterhead	1-3 L	1-0 W
Nairn County	6-0 W	2-2 D
Airdrieonians	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ross County (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Elgin

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Forfar Scotland League Two	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
01/08	FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two	3-0	5-0	5	4	W
25/07	Hamilton Scotland League Cup	0-2	0-5	3	2	L
18/07	Kilmarnock Scotland League Cup	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
14/07	Peterhead Scotland League Cup	1-0	1-3	6	1	L
11/07	Raith Scotland League Cup	0-2	1-3	1	2	L
04/07	Johnstone Burgh Club Friendly List	–	3-2	–	–	W
30/06	Nairn County UK Friendlies	2-0	6-0	–	–	W
27/06	Airdrieonians UK Friendlies	1-1	1-1	4	0	D
02/05	Stranraer Scotland League Two	0-0	0-1	5	3	L

Ross County

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Montrose Scotland League One	1-1	2-1	10	7	W
01/08	Peterhead Scotland League One	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
25/07	Airdrieonians Scotland League Cup	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
21/07	Dundee Scotland League Cup	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
18/07	Clyde Scotland League Cup	2-1	3-1	3	5	W
14/07	Nairn County UK Friendlies	0-1	2-2	1	1	D
11/07	Annan Athletic Scotland League Cup	1-0	4-1	4	2	W
04/07	Inverness CT UK Friendlies	1-0	4-0	1	3	W
30/06	Clachnacuddin UK Friendlies	1-0	2-0	8	0	W
27/06	Forres Mechanics Club Friendly List	–	5-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elgin vs Ross County?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ross County win (63%). Probabilities: Elgin 16%, draw 20%, Ross County 63%.

How many goals are expected in Elgin vs Ross County?

The model expects 3.6 goals (Elgin 1.19 · Ross County 2.41), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Elgin vs Ross County?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.