Football · Scotland League Challenge Cup · 11/08, 20:45

Prediction: FC Edinburgh vs Cowdenbeath

Team pages: FC Edinburgh · Cowdenbeath

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

FC Edinburgh2.4

Cowdenbeath1

1X2

67% 21% 13%

FC Edinburgh Draw Cowdenbeath

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

FC Edinburgh 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWDLLWLWLD

Cowdenbeath 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDLDLLDWLL

Head-to-head

FC Edinburgh 4–2–0 Cowdenbeath (6 last)

FC Edinburgh3-0Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath0-0FC Edinburgh
FC Edinburgh1-0Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath1-2FC Edinburgh
FC Edinburgh1-1Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath1-3FC Edinburgh

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Edinburgh 1510 · Cowdenbeath 1441

	FC Edinburgh	Draw	Cowdenbeath
Our model	68%	19%	13%
Market	66%	22%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Edinburgh (rating 1510 vs 1441).
H2H favours FC Edinburgh: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Edinburgh	Cowdenbeath
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.2	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.6	2.5 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.20

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.80

2 (+1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:04 +3’	1.36	4.20	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Edinburgh 4–2–0 Cowdenbeath

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/07/22 Scotland League Cup	FC Edinburgh	3-0 HT 2-0	Cowdenbeath
16/04/22 Scotland League Two	Cowdenbeath	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Edinburgh
25/02/22 Scotland League Two	FC Edinburgh	1-0 HT 1-0	Cowdenbeath
22/12/21 Scotland League Two	Cowdenbeath	1-2 HT 0-0	FC Edinburgh
01/10/21 Scotland League Two	FC Edinburgh	1-1 HT 1-0	Cowdenbeath
30/03/21 Scotland League Two	Cowdenbeath	1-3 HT 1-2	FC Edinburgh

Standings · Scotland League Challenge Cup

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Aberdeen B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Airdrieonians	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alloa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Annan Athletic	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Banks O'Dee	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Berwick Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bonnyrigg Rose	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Celtic B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Clachnacuddin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Clyde	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Clydebank FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cove Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cowdenbeath	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cumbernauld Colts	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dumbarton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dundee B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dundee Utd B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	East Fife	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	East Kilbride	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Edinburgh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Elgin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Forfar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Formartine United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fraserburgh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gala Fairydean	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rangers B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hamilton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hearts B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hibernian B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kelty Hearts	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kilmarnock B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Montrose	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Motherwell B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Peterhead	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Queen of South	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ross County	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Spartans	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	St Mirren B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stirling	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stranraer	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Edinburgh

DWDLLWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Spartans Scotland League Two	1-0	2-2	4	8	D
01/08	Elgin Scotland League Two	0-3	0-5	3	4	L
21/07	Stranraer Scotland League Cup	2-0	2-0	7	4	W
18/07	Ayr Scotland League Cup	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
14/07	Alloa Scotland League Cup	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
11/07	Falkirk Scotland League Cup	0-4	0-5	3	3	L
30/06	Raith UK Friendlies	0-1	0-4	0	0	L
27/06	Gala Fairydean Club Friendly List	1-1	3-3	–	–	D
16/05	Brora Rangers FC Scotland League Two Play-Offs	2-0	2-0	1	5	W
09/05	Brora Rangers FC Scotland League Two Play-Offs	1-1	1-1	5	4	D

Cowdenbeath

LDLDLLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Broxburn Athletic Scotland Lowland League	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
28/07	Tranent Scotland Lowland League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
18/04	Hearts B Scotland Lowland League	1-0	3-0	8	1	W
10/04	Celtic B Scotland Lowland League	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
28/03	Gretna 2008 Scotland Lowland League	0-1	1-2	9	8	L
17/03	Stirling University Scotland Lowland League	1-1	1-2	5	1	L
07/03	Stirling University Scotland Lowland League	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
28/02	Linlithgow Rose Scotland Lowland League	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
21/02	Tranent Scotland Lowland League	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
31/01	Linlithgow Rose Scotland Lowland League Cup	0-0	0-4	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Edinburgh vs Cowdenbeath?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Edinburgh win (67%). Probabilities: FC Edinburgh 67%, draw 21%, Cowdenbeath 13%.

How many goals are expected in FC Edinburgh vs Cowdenbeath?

The model expects 3.4 goals (FC Edinburgh 2.4 · Cowdenbeath 1), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Edinburgh vs Cowdenbeath?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.