Football · Scotland League Challenge Cup · 11/08, 20:45

Prediction: Alloa vs Stranraer

Team pages: Alloa · Stranraer

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Alloa2.03

Stranraer1.19

1X2

56% 23% 21%

Alloa Draw Stranraer

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Alloa 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Stranraer 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDWDLDLLLL

Head-to-head

Alloa 2–1–3 Stranraer (6 last)

Alloa2-2Stranraer
Stranraer2-1Alloa
Alloa3-1Stranraer
Alloa0-1Stranraer
Stranraer1-0Alloa
Alloa1-0Stranraer

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alloa 1477 · Stranraer 1500

	Alloa	Draw	Stranraer
Our model	56%	23%	21%
Market	56%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Stranraer: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alloa	Stranraer
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.2	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	2.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.80

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:05 +1’	1.61	3.80	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Alloa 2–1–3 Stranraer

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Scotland League Cup	Alloa	2-2 HT 0-1	Stranraer
12/08/25 Scotland League Challenge Cup	Stranraer	2-1 HT 0-0	Alloa
22/09/20 UK Friendlies	Alloa	3-1 HT 1-1	Stranraer
07/04/18 Scotland League One	Alloa	0-1 HT 0-0	Stranraer
24/02/18 Scotland League One	Stranraer	1-0 HT 1-0	Alloa
23/12/17 Scotland League One	Alloa	1-0 HT 0-0	Stranraer

Standings · Scotland League Challenge Cup

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Aberdeen B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Airdrieonians	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alloa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Annan Athletic	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Banks O'Dee	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Berwick Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bonnyrigg Rose	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Celtic B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Clachnacuddin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Clyde	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Clydebank FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cove Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cowdenbeath	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cumbernauld Colts	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dumbarton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dundee B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dundee Utd B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	East Fife	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	East Kilbride	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Edinburgh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Elgin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Forfar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Formartine United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fraserburgh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gala Fairydean	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rangers B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hamilton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hearts B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hibernian B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kelty Hearts	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kilmarnock B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Montrose	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Motherwell B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Peterhead	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Queen of South	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ross County	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Spartans	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	St Mirren B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stirling	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stranraer	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alloa	Stranraer
Ayr	1-4 L	2-3 L
Falkirk	1-1 D	0-3 L
FC Edinburgh	0-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Alloa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Hamilton Scotland League One	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
01/08	East Fife Scotland League One	0-0	0-0	12	2	D
25/07	Ayr Scotland League Cup	0-3	1-4	5	1	L
21/07	Falkirk Scotland League Cup	0-1	1-1	1	2	D
18/07	Stranraer Scotland League Cup	0-1	2-2	3	2	D
14/07	FC Edinburgh Scotland League Cup	0-2	0-2	6	4	L
30/06	Livingston UK Friendlies	0-2	0-3	1	0	L
16/05	Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship Play-Offs	0-0	1-0	3	11	W
13/05	Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship Play-Offs	0-2	1-3	4	4	L
09/05	Airdrieonians Scotland Championship Play-Offs	1-0	2-1	10	3	W

Stranraer

WDWDLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Annan Athletic Scotland League Two	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
01/08	Clyde Scotland League Two	1-3	1-3	7	3	L
25/07	Falkirk Scotland League Cup	0-2	0-3	3	2	L
21/07	FC Edinburgh Scotland League Cup	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
18/07	Alloa Scotland League Cup	1-0	2-2	3	2	D
11/07	Ayr Scotland League Cup	1-0	2-3	0	6	L
04/07	Morton UK Friendlies	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
27/06	Dundela Club Friendly List	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
20/06	Larne FC UK Friendlies	0-0	0-0	10	0	D
02/05	Elgin Scotland League Two	0-0	1-0	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alloa vs Stranraer?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alloa win (56%). Probabilities: Alloa 56%, draw 23%, Stranraer 21%.

How many goals are expected in Alloa vs Stranraer?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Alloa 2.03 · Stranraer 1.19), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Alloa vs Stranraer?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.