Football · Scotland League Challenge Cup · 11/08, 20:45

Prediction: Queen of South vs Cumbernauld Colts

Team pages: Queen of South

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.82Total

Queen of South2.87

Cumbernauld Colts0.95

1X2

76% 16% 9%

Queen of South Draw Cumbernauld Colts

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Queen of South 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DDLLDWLLLL

Cumbernauld Colts 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWWDWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Queen of South 1452 · Cumbernauld Colts 1515

	Queen of South	Draw	Cumbernauld Colts
Our model	76%	15%	9%
Market	75%	16%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.82 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cumbernauld Colts (rating 1452 vs 1515).
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Queen of South	Cumbernauld Colts
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.9	2.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.3	1.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.2	2.4 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.20

X5.50

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.95

2 (+2)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:49 +18’	1.20	5.50	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Scotland League Challenge Cup

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Aberdeen B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Airdrieonians	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alloa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Annan Athletic	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Banks O'Dee	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Berwick Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bonnyrigg Rose	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Celtic B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Clachnacuddin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Clyde	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Clydebank FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cove Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cowdenbeath	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cumbernauld Colts	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dumbarton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dundee B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dundee Utd B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	East Fife	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	East Kilbride	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Edinburgh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Elgin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Forfar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Formartine United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fraserburgh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gala Fairydean	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rangers B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hamilton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hearts B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hibernian B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kelty Hearts	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kilmarnock B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Montrose	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Motherwell B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Peterhead	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Queen of South	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ross County	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Spartans	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	St Mirren B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stirling	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stranraer	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Queen of South

DDLLDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Peterhead Scotland League One	0-1	0-1	10	2	L
01/08	East Kilbride Scotland League One	1-3	1-5	2	7	L
25/07	Queen's Park Scotland League Cup	1-2	1-3	2	3	L
22/07	Aberdeen Scotland League Cup	1-1	1-4	1	2	L
18/07	Brora Rangers FC Scotland League Cup	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
11/07	Kelty Hearts Scotland League Cup	1-1	1-1	1	1	D
04/07	Crusaders UK Friendlies	1-2	1-2	5	1	L
27/06	Connah's Quay UK Friendlies	0-1	0-1	0	1	L
09/05	Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship Play-Offs	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
05/05	Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship Play-Offs	0-1	1-1	11	5	D

Cumbernauld Colts

LLWWLWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Kilwinning Rangers Scotland Lowland League	1-1	2-4	0	2	L
04/04	Gretna 2008 Scotland Lowland League	2-1	3-1	6	3	W
28/03	Broxburn Athletic Scotland Lowland League	1-0	3-3	7	5	D
25/03	Civil Service Strollers Scotland Lowland League	1-0	5-0	3	3	W
10/03	Linlithgow Rose Scotland Lowland League Cup	4-1	4-1	5	6	W
07/03	Tranent Scotland Lowland League	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
27/02	Hearts B Scotland Lowland League	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
21/02	Albion Scotland Lowland League	1-0	4-0	4	1	W
07/02	Celtic B Scotland Lowland League	0-2	1-3	5	0	L
13/12	Linlithgow Rose Scotland Lowland League	0-2	0-2	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Queen of South vs Cumbernauld Colts?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Queen of South win (76%). Probabilities: Queen of South 76%, draw 16%, Cumbernauld Colts 9%.

How many goals are expected in Queen of South vs Cumbernauld Colts?

The model expects 3.82 goals (Queen of South 2.87 · Cumbernauld Colts 0.95), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Queen of South vs Cumbernauld Colts?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.