Football · Scotland League Challenge Cup · 11/08, 20:45

Prediction: Bonnyrigg Rose vs Annan Athletic

Team pages: Annan Athletic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.01Total

Bonnyrigg Rose1.86

Annan Athletic2.14

1X2

33% 24% 44%

Bonnyrigg Rose Draw Annan Athletic

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Bonnyrigg Rose 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Annan Athletic 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Bonnyrigg Rose 1–2–2 Annan Athletic (5 last)

Annan Athletic2-2Bonnyrigg Rose
Annan Athletic0-0Bonnyrigg Rose
Bonnyrigg Rose1-2Annan Athletic
Annan Athletic4-0Bonnyrigg Rose
Bonnyrigg Rose2-0Annan Athletic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bonnyrigg Rose 1532 · Annan Athletic 1458

	Bonnyrigg Rose	Draw	Annan Athletic
Our model	34%	22%	44%
Market	32%	25%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 4.01 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bonnyrigg Rose (rating 1532 vs 1458).
H2H favours Annan Athletic: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bonnyrigg Rose	Annan Athletic
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.5	1.4 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	1.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.1	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.60

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 2.80▼	Bet365 2.80
X	3.70 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
2	1.95 → 2.10▲	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:05 +1’	3.10	3.70	1.95
16:02 +6’	2.80▼	3.60▼	2.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bonnyrigg Rose 1–2–2 Annan Athletic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/07/24 Scotland League Cup	Annan Athletic	2-2 HT 2-1	Bonnyrigg Rose
29/04/23 Scotland League Two	Annan Athletic	0-0 HT 0-0	Bonnyrigg Rose
04/02/23 Scotland League Two	Bonnyrigg Rose	1-2 HT 1-2	Annan Athletic
21/01/23 Scotland League Two	Annan Athletic	4-0 HT 1-0	Bonnyrigg Rose
11/10/22 Scotland League Two	Bonnyrigg Rose	2-0 HT 1-0	Annan Athletic

Standings · Scotland League Challenge Cup

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Aberdeen B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Airdrieonians	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alloa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Annan Athletic	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Banks O'Dee	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Berwick Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bonnyrigg Rose	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Celtic B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Clachnacuddin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Clyde	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Clydebank FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cove Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cowdenbeath	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cumbernauld Colts	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dumbarton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dundee B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dundee Utd B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	East Fife	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	East Kilbride	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Edinburgh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Elgin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Forfar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Formartine United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fraserburgh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gala Fairydean	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rangers B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hamilton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hearts B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hibernian B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kelty Hearts	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kilmarnock B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Montrose	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Motherwell B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Peterhead	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Queen of South	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ross County	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Spartans	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	St Mirren B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stirling	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stranraer	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bonnyrigg Rose	Annan Athletic
Gretna 2008	1-2 L	4-2 W
Spartans	1-2 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Bonnyrigg Rose

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/04	Broxburn Athletic Scotland Lowland League	0-2	2-2	6	4	D
07/03	Clydebank FC Scotland Lowland League	1-4	1-5	1	6	L
21/02	Stirling University Scotland Lowland League	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
14/02	Gretna 2008 Scotland Lowland League	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
10/02	Berwick Rangers Scotland Lowland League Cup	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
29/11	Spartans Scotland FA Cup	1-2	1-2	5	4	L
25/10	Cumbernauld Colts Scotland FA Cup	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
18/10	Clydebank FC Scotland Lowland League	0-1	3-2	2	9	W
14/10	Albion Scotland Lowland League	1-0	3-0	6	7	W
03/10	Hearts B Scotland Lowland League	1-0	2-1	4	1	W

Annan Athletic

DWDWLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Stranraer Scotland League Two	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
01/08	Spartans Scotland League Two	1-0	2-4	7	7	L
21/07	Clyde Scotland League Cup	1-4	1-4	2	3	L
18/07	Airdrieonians Scotland League Cup	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
14/07	Dundee Scotland League Cup	0-0	0-5	2	0	L
11/07	Ross County Scotland League Cup	0-1	1-4	1	2	L
30/06	Gretna 2008 UK Friendlies	1-1	4-2	7	2	W
27/06	Queen's Park UK Friendlies	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
23/06	Johnstone Burgh UK Friendlies	3-0	4-1	3	0	W
02/05	Forfar Scotland League Two	1-1	1-1	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bonnyrigg Rose vs Annan Athletic?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Annan Athletic win (44%). Probabilities: Bonnyrigg Rose 33%, draw 24%, Annan Athletic 44%.

How many goals are expected in Bonnyrigg Rose vs Annan Athletic?

The model expects 4.01 goals (Bonnyrigg Rose 1.86 · Annan Athletic 2.14), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Bonnyrigg Rose vs Annan Athletic?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.