Football · Germany Bundesliga Women · 16/10, 18:30
Prediction: Freiburg (W) vs RB Leipzig (W)
Team pages: Freiburg (W) · RB Leipzig (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.17Total
Freiburg (W)1.58
RB Leipzig (W)1.58
1X2
Freiburg (W)
Draw
RB Leipzig (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Freiburg (W)
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
RB Leipzig (W)
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Freiburg (W)
3–1–2
RB Leipzig (W)
(6 last)
- RB Leipzig (W)2-0Freiburg (W)
- Freiburg (W)2-4RB Leipzig (W)
- RB Leipzig (W)1-1Freiburg (W)
- Freiburg (W)4-1RB Leipzig (W)
- Freiburg (W)2-1RB Leipzig (W)
- RB Leipzig (W)0-2Freiburg (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Freiburg (W) 1541 · RB Leipzig (W) 1490
| Freiburg (W) | Draw | RB Leipzig (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Market | 37% | 26% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Freiburg (W) (rating 1541 vs 1490).
- H2H favours Freiburg (W): 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Freiburg (W) | RB Leipzig (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.7 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.7 | 2.3 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Freiburg (W) 3–1–2 RB Leipzig (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Germany Bundesliga Women | RB Leipzig (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Freiburg (W) |
| 03/11/25 Germany Bundesliga Women | Freiburg (W) | 2-4 HT 0-2 | RB Leipzig (W) |
| 30/03/25 Germany Bundesliga Women | RB Leipzig (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Freiburg (W) |
| 20/10/24 Germany Bundesliga Women | Freiburg (W) | 4-1 HT 1-0 | RB Leipzig (W) |
| 20/05/24 Germany Bundesliga Women | Freiburg (W) | 2-1 HT 1-1 | RB Leipzig (W) |
| 27/01/24 Germany Bundesliga Women | RB Leipzig (W) | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Freiburg (W) |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich (W) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 6 | 18 |
| 2 | Wolfsburg (W) | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 12 |
| 5 | Werder Bremen (W) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| 6 | Freiburg (W) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| 7 | FC Cologne (W) | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart (W) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 8 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig (W) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| 10 | Union Berlin (W) | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 6 |
| 10 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV (W) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 5 |
| 13 | Nurnberg (W) | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 2 |
| 14 | Mainz (W) | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Freiburg (W) | RB Leipzig (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen (W) | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Mainz (W) | 3-0 W | 5-0 W |
| Union Berlin (W) | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Hamburger SV (W) | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Wolfsburg (W) | 2-4 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Freiburg (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | FC Cologne (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 13/09 | Mainz (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 23/08 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 17/05 | SGS Essen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Carl Zeiss Jena (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
3-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
RB Leipzig (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Mainz (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 5-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 20/09 | Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Nurnberg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 30/08 | Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 11/05 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Freiburg (W) vs RB Leipzig (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Freiburg (W) win (37%). Probabilities: Freiburg (W) 37%, draw 26%, RB Leipzig (W) 37%.
How many goals are expected in Freiburg (W) vs RB Leipzig (W)?
The model expects 3.17 goals (Freiburg (W) 1.58 · RB Leipzig (W) 1.58), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Freiburg (W) vs RB Leipzig (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.