Football · Germany Bundesliga Women · 25/10, 16:00
Prediction: Nurnberg (W) vs Bayer Leverkusen (W)
Team pages: Nurnberg (W) · Bayer Leverkusen (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.9Total
Nurnberg (W)1.15
Bayer Leverkusen (W)2.74
1X2
Nurnberg (W)
Draw
Bayer Leverkusen (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-2 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Nurnberg (W)
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Bayer Leverkusen (W)
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nurnberg (W)
0–4
Bayer Leverkusen (W)
(4 last)
- Bayer Leverkusen (W)4-0Nurnberg (W)
- Nurnberg (W)0-1Bayer Leverkusen (W)
- Nurnberg (W)1-2Bayer Leverkusen (W)
- Bayer Leverkusen (W)6-0Nurnberg (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nurnberg (W) 1441 · Bayer Leverkusen (W) 1575
| Nurnberg (W) | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 13% | 17% | 70% |
| Market | 12% | 19% | 69% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.9 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bayer Leverkusen (W) (rating 1441 vs 1575).
- H2H favours Bayer Leverkusen (W): 4-0-0.
- High corners: 13 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nurnberg (W) | Bayer Leverkusen (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 3 | 2.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/0/50% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.1 | 4.8 / 7.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 3.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nurnberg (W) 0–0–4 Bayer Leverkusen (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 Germany Bundesliga Women | Bayer Leverkusen (W) | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Nurnberg (W) |
| 21/09/25 Germany Bundesliga Women | Nurnberg (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) |
| 12/02/24 Germany Bundesliga Women | Nurnberg (W) | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) |
| 30/09/23 Germany Bundesliga Women | Bayer Leverkusen (W) | 6-0 HT 3-0 | Nurnberg (W) |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich (W) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Wolfsburg (W) | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 8 | 18 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 13 |
| 5 | FC Cologne (W) | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 12 |
| 6 | RB Leipzig (W) | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 10 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen (W) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| 8 | Freiburg (W) | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| 9 | Union Berlin (W) | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 9 |
| 10 | VfB Stuttgart (W) | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 8 |
| 11 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV (W) | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 5 |
| 13 | Nurnberg (W) | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 2 |
| 14 | Mainz (W) | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nurnberg (W) | Bayer Leverkusen (W) |
|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| RB Leipzig (W) | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Eintracht Frankfurt (W) | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Wolfsburg (W) | 2-8 L | 1-2 L |
| SGS Essen (W) | 3-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Bayer Leverkusen (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nurnberg (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 04/10 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-3 | 1-5 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | VfB Stuttgart (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 3-3 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-0 | 2-8 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | SGS Essen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 04/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
Bayer Leverkusen (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 1 | D |
| 02/10 | Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 20/09 | Freiburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 14/09 | Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 04/09 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 23/08 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 18 | 3 | L |
| 11/05 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | SGS Essen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nurnberg (W) vs Bayer Leverkusen (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Bayer Leverkusen (W) win (70%). Probabilities: Nurnberg (W) 12%, draw 18%, Bayer Leverkusen (W) 70%.
How many goals are expected in Nurnberg (W) vs Bayer Leverkusen (W)?
The model expects 3.9 goals (Nurnberg (W) 1.15 · Bayer Leverkusen (W) 2.74), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Nurnberg (W) vs Bayer Leverkusen (W)?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.