Football · Germany Bundesliga Women · 18/10, 14:00
Prediction: Union Berlin (W) vs Nurnberg (W)
Team pages: Union Berlin (W) · Nurnberg (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.83Total
Union Berlin (W)2.37
Nurnberg (W)1.46
1X2
Union Berlin (W)
Draw
Nurnberg (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Union Berlin (W)
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Nurnberg (W)
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Union Berlin (W)
2–2–0
Nurnberg (W)
(4 last)
- Nurnberg (W)1-2Union Berlin (W)
- Union Berlin (W)1-1Nurnberg (W)
- Union Berlin (W)4-0Nurnberg (W)
- Nurnberg (W)0-0Union Berlin (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Union Berlin (W) 1488 · Nurnberg (W) 1441
| Union Berlin (W) | Draw | Nurnberg (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| Market | 56% | 22% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.83 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Berlin (W) (rating 1488 vs 1441).
- H2H favours Union Berlin (W): 2-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union Berlin (W) | Nurnberg (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2 | 1.4 / 2.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.4 | 2.4 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Berlin (W) 2–2–0 Nurnberg (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/25 Germany Bundesliga Women | Nurnberg (W) | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Union Berlin (W) |
| 07/09/25 Germany Bundesliga Women | Union Berlin (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Nurnberg (W) |
| 16/02/25 Germany Bundesliga II Women | Union Berlin (W) | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Nurnberg (W) |
| 01/09/24 Germany Bundesliga II Women | Nurnberg (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Union Berlin (W) |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich (W) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 6 | 18 |
| 2 | Wolfsburg (W) | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 12 |
| 5 | Werder Bremen (W) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| 6 | Freiburg (W) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| 7 | FC Cologne (W) | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart (W) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 8 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig (W) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| 10 | Union Berlin (W) | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 6 |
| 10 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV (W) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 5 |
| 13 | Nurnberg (W) | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 2 |
| 14 | Mainz (W) | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Union Berlin (W) | Nurnberg (W) |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart (W) | 4-0 W | 3-3 D |
| RB Leipzig (W) | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Eintracht Frankfurt (W) | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Hamburger SV (W) | 1-0 W | 1-5 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Union Berlin (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union Berlin (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | VfB Stuttgart (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 3-2 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | FC Cologne (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 07/09 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Freiburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 21/08 | Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 01/05 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 22/04 | Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
Nurnberg (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-3 | 1-5 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | VfB Stuttgart (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 3-3 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-0 | 2-8 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | SGS Essen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 04/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 24/04 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Union Berlin (W) vs Nurnberg (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Berlin (W) win (57%). Probabilities: Union Berlin (W) 57%, draw 21%, Nurnberg (W) 22%.
How many goals are expected in Union Berlin (W) vs Nurnberg (W)?
The model expects 3.83 goals (Union Berlin (W) 2.37 · Nurnberg (W) 1.46), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin (W) vs Nurnberg (W)?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.