Football · Germany Bundesliga Women · 25/10, 17:00
Prediction: Hamburger SV (W) vs Union Berlin (W)
Team pages: Hamburger SV (W) · Union Berlin (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
Hamburger SV (W)1.03
Union Berlin (W)1.75
1X2
Hamburger SV (W)
Draw
Union Berlin (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Hamburger SV (W)
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Union Berlin (W)
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hamburger SV (W)
1–3–2
Union Berlin (W)
(6 last)
- Union Berlin (W)1-1Hamburger SV (W)
- Hamburger SV (W)0-1Union Berlin (W)
- Union Berlin (W)1-1Hamburger SV (W)
- Hamburger SV (W)1-2Union Berlin (W)
- Union Berlin (W)2-2Hamburger SV (W)
- Hamburger SV (W)2-0Union Berlin (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hamburger SV (W) 1452 · Union Berlin (W) 1497
| Hamburger SV (W) | Draw | Union Berlin (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 26% | 53% |
| Market | 22% | 24% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.78 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Berlin (W) (rating 1452 vs 1497).
- H2H favours Union Berlin (W): 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hamburger SV (W) | Union Berlin (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.5 | 1.3 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.7 | 2.8 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.1 | 4.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hamburger SV (W) 1–3–2 Union Berlin (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 Women’s Friendly | Union Berlin (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Hamburger SV (W) |
| 01/05/26 Germany Bundesliga Women | Hamburger SV (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Union Berlin (W) |
| 21/11/25 Germany Bundesliga Women | Union Berlin (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Hamburger SV (W) |
| 08/02/25 Germany Bundesliga II Women | Hamburger SV (W) | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Union Berlin (W) |
| 24/08/24 Germany Bundesliga II Women | Union Berlin (W) | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Hamburger SV (W) |
| 04/08/19 Germany DFB Pokal Women | Hamburger SV (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Union Berlin (W) |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich (W) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Wolfsburg (W) | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 8 | 18 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 13 |
| 5 | FC Cologne (W) | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 12 |
| 6 | RB Leipzig (W) | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 10 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen (W) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| 8 | Freiburg (W) | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| 9 | Union Berlin (W) | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 9 |
| 10 | VfB Stuttgart (W) | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 8 |
| 11 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV (W) | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 5 |
| 13 | Nurnberg (W) | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 2 |
| 14 | Mainz (W) | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hamburger SV (W) | Union Berlin (W) |
|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (W) | 1-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Nurnberg (W) | 5-1 W | 2-1 W |
| RB Leipzig (W) | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| VfB Stuttgart (W) | 1-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Freiburg (W) | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Bayern Munich (W) | 0-1 L | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Hamburger SV (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hamburger SV (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | FC Cologne (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 04/10 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Nurnberg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
3-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 11/09 | Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 29/08 | VfB Stuttgart (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 23/08 | Freiburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 17/05 | Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | FC Cologne (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 01/05 | Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
Union Berlin (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Nurnberg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 04/10 | VfB Stuttgart (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 3-2 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | FC Cologne (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 07/09 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Freiburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 21/08 | Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 01/05 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hamburger SV (W) vs Union Berlin (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Union Berlin (W) win (54%). Probabilities: Hamburger SV (W) 22%, draw 25%, Union Berlin (W) 54%.
How many goals are expected in Hamburger SV (W) vs Union Berlin (W)?
The model expects 2.78 goals (Hamburger SV (W) 1.03 · Union Berlin (W) 1.75), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV (W) vs Union Berlin (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.