Football · Germany Bundesliga Women · 17/10, 12:00
Prediction: FC Cologne (W) vs Hamburger SV (W)
Team pages: FC Cologne (W) · Hamburger SV (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3Total
FC Cologne (W)1.9
Hamburger SV (W)1.1
1X2
FC Cologne (W)
Draw
Hamburger SV (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Cologne (W)
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Hamburger SV (W)
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Cologne (W)
2–0
Hamburger SV (W)
(2 last)
- FC Cologne (W)2-1Hamburger SV (W)
- Hamburger SV (W)1-4FC Cologne (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Cologne (W) 1559 · Hamburger SV (W) 1458
| FC Cologne (W) | Draw | Hamburger SV (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Market | 55% | 23% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
3 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Cologne (W) (rating 1559 vs 1458).
- H2H favours FC Cologne (W): 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Cologne (W) | Hamburger SV (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.5 | 1.1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.1 | 1.8 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 4.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cologne (W) 2–0–0 Hamburger SV (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Germany Bundesliga Women | FC Cologne (W) | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Hamburger SV (W) |
| 08/12/25 Germany Bundesliga Women | Hamburger SV (W) | 1-4 HT 0-2 | FC Cologne (W) |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich (W) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 6 | 18 |
| 2 | Wolfsburg (W) | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 12 |
| 5 | Werder Bremen (W) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| 6 | Freiburg (W) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| 7 | FC Cologne (W) | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart (W) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 8 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig (W) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| 10 | Union Berlin (W) | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 6 |
| 10 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV (W) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 5 |
| 13 | Nurnberg (W) | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 2 |
| 14 | Mainz (W) | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Cologne (W) | Hamburger SV (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Freiburg (W) | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Bayern Munich (W) | 2-5 L | 0-1 L |
| Union Berlin (W) | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Werder Bremen (W) | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Cologne (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Freiburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-3 | 2-5 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Mainz (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 28/08 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Carl Zeiss Jena (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 27/04 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-4 | 2-6 | 4 | 3 | L |
Hamburger SV (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Nurnberg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
3-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 11/09 | Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 29/08 | VfB Stuttgart (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 23/08 | Freiburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 17/05 | Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | FC Cologne (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 01/05 | Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 24/04 | Nurnberg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Cologne (W) vs Hamburger SV (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Cologne (W) win (55%). Probabilities: FC Cologne (W) 55%, draw 24%, Hamburger SV (W) 21%.
How many goals are expected in FC Cologne (W) vs Hamburger SV (W)?
The model expects 3 goals (FC Cologne (W) 1.9 · Hamburger SV (W) 1.1), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Cologne (W) vs Hamburger SV (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.