Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 18/10, 16:00

Prediction: UNA Strassen vs Union Luxembourg

Team pages: UNA Strassen · Union Luxembourg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

UNA Strassen1.64

Union Luxembourg1.05

1X2

51% 26% 23%

UNA Strassen Draw Union Luxembourg

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

UNA Strassen 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

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Union Luxembourg 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

UNA Strassen 3–2–1 Union Luxembourg (6 last)

UNA Strassen1-0Union Luxembourg
Union Luxembourg1-2UNA Strassen
Union Luxembourg0-1UNA Strassen
UNA Strassen0-0Union Luxembourg
UNA Strassen1-1Union Luxembourg
Union Luxembourg2-1UNA Strassen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UNA Strassen 1617 · Union Luxembourg 1547

	UNA Strassen	Draw	Union Luxembourg
Our model	50%	27%	23%
Market	51%	25%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UNA Strassen (rating 1617 vs 1547).
H2H favours UNA Strassen: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UNA Strassen	Union Luxembourg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.2	2.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.8	3.2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.4	5.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.50

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.75▲	Pinn 1.77
X	4.00 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.55
2	4.50 → 3.75▼	Pinn 4.08 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:45 +3’	1.53	4.00	4.50
14:16 +14’	1.75▲	3.50▼	3.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:01 +30’	1.80	3.53	3.96
00:30 +55’	1.78▼	3.55▲	4.01▲
11:56 +53’	1.77▼	3.55	4.08▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UNA Strassen 3–2–1 Union Luxembourg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale	UNA Strassen	1-0 HT 0-0	Union Luxembourg
18/10/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Union Luxembourg	1-2 HT 1-2	UNA Strassen
22/02/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Union Luxembourg	0-1 HT 0-0	UNA Strassen
25/08/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	UNA Strassen	0-0 HT 0-0	Union Luxembourg
05/05/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	UNA Strassen	1-1 HT 0-0	Union Luxembourg
26/11/23 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Union Luxembourg	2-1 HT 1-0	UNA Strassen

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	9	9	0	0	19	2	27
2	FC 03 Differdange	9	8	0	1	25	5	24
3	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	9	7	0	2	18	12	21
4	Progres Niedercorn	9	6	1	2	15	5	19
5	Union Luxembourg	9	5	3	1	23	10	18
6	UN Kaerjeng	9	6	0	3	27	16	18
7	Bissen	9	5	1	3	20	13	16
8	Residence Walferdange	9	5	0	4	16	16	15
9	US Hostert	9	3	2	4	14	13	11
10	F91 Dudelange	9	3	1	5	11	16	10
11	Victoria Rosport	9	2	2	5	14	20	8
12	Jeunesse Esch	9	2	1	6	15	21	7
13	Rumelange	9	2	0	7	9	25	6
14	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	9	1	2	6	7	18	5
15	Wiltz	9	1	1	7	14	24	4
16	Swift Hesperange	9	0	0	9	2	33	-12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UNA Strassen	Union Luxembourg
Bissen	2-1 W	2-2 D
Progres Niedercorn	1-0 W	0-0 D
Jeunesse Esch	1-0 W	5-1 W
F91 Dudelange	2-0 W	3-1 W
Victoria Rosport	4-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: UNA Strassen (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UNA Strassen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	2-0	10	2	W
16/09	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-0	6	8	W
13/09	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-1	11	4	W
06/09	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-0	3-0	–	–	W
30/08	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-1	2	11	W
22/08	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
16/08	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
09/08	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
04/08	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	4-0	4-0	–	–	W
23/05	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-0	0	0	D

Union Luxembourg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	2-2	9	10	D
16/09	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
12/09	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-0	5-1	7	6	W
06/09	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	3-1	4	7	W
30/08	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-1	2-2	4	3	D
23/08	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
16/08	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	5-0	–	–	W
09/08	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
02/08	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	4-1	5-1	–	–	W
23/05	FC Rodange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	6-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UNA Strassen vs Union Luxembourg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UNA Strassen win (51%). Probabilities: UNA Strassen 51%, draw 26%, Union Luxembourg 23%.

How many goals are expected in UNA Strassen vs Union Luxembourg?

The model expects 2.69 goals (UNA Strassen 1.64 · Union Luxembourg 1.05), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in UNA Strassen vs Union Luxembourg?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.