Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 25/10, 16:00

Prediction: Union Luxembourg vs US Mondorf-Les-Bains

Team pages: Union Luxembourg · US Mondorf-Les-Bains

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Union Luxembourg1.56

US Mondorf-Les-Bains1.74

1X2

34% 25% 42%

Union Luxembourg Draw US Mondorf-Les-Bains

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Luxembourg 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLDWWDDD

US Mondorf-Les-Bains 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLLWW

Head-to-head

Union Luxembourg 4–1–1 US Mondorf-Les-Bains (6 last)

US Mondorf-Les-Bains1-3Union Luxembourg
Union Luxembourg0-2US Mondorf-Les-Bains
US Mondorf-Les-Bains0-1Union Luxembourg
Union Luxembourg3-0US Mondorf-Les-Bains
Union Luxembourg1-1US Mondorf-Les-Bains
US Mondorf-Les-Bains1-3Union Luxembourg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Luxembourg 1567 · US Mondorf-Les-Bains 1554

	Union Luxembourg	Draw	US Mondorf-Les-Bains
Our model	34%	25%	41%
Market	34%	24%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Union Luxembourg: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Luxembourg	US Mondorf-Les-Bains
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.1	2.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	1.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.7	1.8 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.3	6.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.70

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.78 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:18 +23’	2.63	3.70	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:41 +1’	2.27	3.43	2.78

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Luxembourg 4–1–1 US Mondorf-Les-Bains

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	1-3 HT 0-2	Union Luxembourg
14/09/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Union Luxembourg	0-2 HT 0-2	US Mondorf-Les-Bains
16/03/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	0-1 HT 0-1	Union Luxembourg
21/09/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Union Luxembourg	3-0 HT 1-0	US Mondorf-Les-Bains
26/05/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Union Luxembourg	1-1 HT 1-1	US Mondorf-Les-Bains
06/08/23 Luxembourg Division Nationale	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	1-3 HT 1-0	Union Luxembourg

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	10	9	1	0	20	3	28
2	FC 03 Differdange	10	9	0	1	30	8	27
3	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	10	8	0	2	22	13	24
4	UN Kaerjeng	10	7	0	3	29	17	21
5	Union Luxembourg	10	5	4	1	24	11	19
6	Bissen	10	6	1	3	25	14	19
7	Progres Niedercorn	11	6	1	4	16	9	19
8	Residence Walferdange	10	5	1	4	19	19	16
9	F91 Dudelange	10	4	1	5	16	16	13
10	US Hostert	10	3	2	5	15	18	11
11	Jeunesse Esch	10	3	1	6	16	21	10
12	Victoria Rosport	10	2	2	6	17	25	8
13	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	11	2	2	7	9	19	8
14	Rumelange	10	2	1	7	12	28	7
15	Wiltz	10	1	1	8	15	28	4
16	Swift Hesperange	10	0	0	10	2	38	-12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Luxembourg	US Mondorf-Les-Bains
UNA Strassen	1-1 D	1-2 L
Bissen	2-2 D	2-1 W
Progres Niedercorn	0-0 D	2-1 W
Jeunesse Esch	5-1 W	3-1 W
F91 Dudelange	3-1 W	1-0 W
Victoria Rosport	2-2 D	3-2 W
FC 03 Differdange	0-3 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 1 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: US Mondorf-Les-Bains (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Luxembourg

WWWLDWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
11/10	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	2-2	9	10	D
16/09	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
12/09	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-0	5-1	7	6	W
06/09	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	3-1	4	7	W
30/08	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-1	2-2	4	3	D
23/08	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
16/08	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	5-0	–	–	W
09/08	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
02/08	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	4-1	5-1	–	–	W

US Mondorf-Les-Bains

WWWWWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-1	4-1	1	6	W
11/10	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
16/09	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	1-2	8	8	L
13/09	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	1-2	1	4	L
06/09	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-1	1	7	W
30/08	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
23/08	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
16/08	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
09/08	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
02/08	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-1	3-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Luxembourg vs US Mondorf-Les-Bains?

According to our model, the most likely result is an US Mondorf-Les-Bains win (42%). Probabilities: Union Luxembourg 34%, draw 25%, US Mondorf-Les-Bains 42%.

How many goals are expected in Union Luxembourg vs US Mondorf-Les-Bains?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Union Luxembourg 1.56 · US Mondorf-Les-Bains 1.74), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Luxembourg vs US Mondorf-Les-Bains?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.