Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 25/10, 16:00

Prediction: UN Kaerjeng vs Bissen

Team pages: UN Kaerjeng · Bissen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.9Total

UN Kaerjeng1.77

Bissen2.13

1X2

31% 23% 45%

UN Kaerjeng Draw Bissen

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

UN Kaerjeng 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLWWWW

Bissen 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLWWDW

Head-to-head

UN Kaerjeng 1–1–4 Bissen (6 last)

UN Kaerjeng1-2Bissen
Bissen1-0UN Kaerjeng
Bissen4-0UN Kaerjeng
UN Kaerjeng0-2Bissen
Bissen2-2UN Kaerjeng
UN Kaerjeng3-1Bissen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UN Kaerjeng 1549 · Bissen 1553

	UN Kaerjeng	Draw	Bissen
Our model	32%	22%	46%
Market	31%	24%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.9 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Bissen: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UN Kaerjeng	Bissen
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 1.7	2.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.9	1.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	70/0/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.3	2.2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.75

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 1 · xG: 4.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.91
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.30 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:35 +7’	2.90	3.75	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:04 +98’	2.50	3.87	2.30
22:57 +7’	2.50	3.91▲	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UN Kaerjeng 1–1–4 Bissen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale	UN Kaerjeng	1-2 HT 1-0	Bissen
19/10/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Bissen	1-0 HT 0-0	UN Kaerjeng
04/05/25 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	Bissen	4-0	UN Kaerjeng
24/11/24 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	UN Kaerjeng	0-2	Bissen
08/05/22 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	Bissen	2-2	UN Kaerjeng
28/11/21 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	UN Kaerjeng	3-1	Bissen

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	10	9	1	0	20	3	28
2	FC 03 Differdange	10	9	0	1	30	8	27
3	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	10	8	0	2	22	13	24
4	UN Kaerjeng	10	7	0	3	29	17	21
5	Union Luxembourg	10	5	4	1	24	11	19
6	Bissen	10	6	1	3	25	14	19
7	Progres Niedercorn	11	6	1	4	16	9	19
8	Residence Walferdange	10	5	1	4	19	19	16
9	F91 Dudelange	10	4	1	5	16	16	13
10	US Hostert	10	3	2	5	15	18	11
11	Jeunesse Esch	10	3	1	6	16	21	10
12	Victoria Rosport	10	2	2	6	17	25	8
13	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	11	2	2	7	9	19	8
14	Rumelange	10	2	1	7	12	28	7
15	Wiltz	10	1	1	8	15	28	4
16	Swift Hesperange	10	0	0	10	2	38	-12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UN Kaerjeng	Bissen
Progres Niedercorn	2-1 W	0-4 L
Jeunesse Esch	4-1 W	2-0 W
F91 Dudelange	4-2 W	2-0 W
Residence Walferdange	1-2 L	2-1 W
US Hostert	4-2 W	5-1 W
Union Luxembourg	1-5 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bissen (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UN Kaerjeng

LWLWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
11/10	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
16/09	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-1	4-2	5	5	W
11/09	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	4-0	5-0	5	5	W
06/09	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	1-4	8	3	L
30/08	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-0	6-0	–	–	W
23/08	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
16/08	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
09/08	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-1	4-2	–	–	W
02/08	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-4	1-5	–	–	L

Bissen

WWLWLLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	5-1	2	8	W
11/10	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-2	3	10	D
16/09	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-0	4-2	–	–	W
13/09	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	4-0	6-0	6	2	W
06/09	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
30/08	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	1-2	3	11	L
23/08	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
16/08	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
09/08	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-0	2	0	W
04/08	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UN Kaerjeng vs Bissen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bissen win (45%). Probabilities: UN Kaerjeng 31%, draw 23%, Bissen 45%.

How many goals are expected in UN Kaerjeng vs Bissen?

The model expects 3.9 goals (UN Kaerjeng 1.77 · Bissen 2.13), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in UN Kaerjeng vs Bissen?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.