Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 25/10, 16:00

Prediction: Wiltz vs Rumelange

Team pages: Wiltz · Rumelange

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.95Total

Wiltz2.05

Rumelange1.9

1X2

42% 22% 36%

Wiltz Draw Rumelange

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Wiltz 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLLLL

Rumelange 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLLLLD

Head-to-head

Wiltz 4–1–1 Rumelange (6 last)

Rumelange1-3Wiltz
Wiltz1-0Rumelange
Wiltz3-2Rumelange
Wiltz0-3Rumelange
Rumelange0-2Wiltz
Rumelange2-2Wiltz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wiltz 1433 · Rumelange 1409

	Wiltz	Draw	Rumelange
Our model	42%	22%	36%
Market	42%	22%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Wiltz: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wiltz	Rumelange
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.8	1.2 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.2	0.7 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.2	2.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.2	5.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X4.00

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 3.13 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:37 +4’	2.15	4.00	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:04 +97’	1.97	3.77	3.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wiltz 4–1–1 Rumelange

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	Rumelange	1-3	Wiltz
26/10/25 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	Wiltz	1-0	Rumelange
11/12/19 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	Wiltz	3-2	Rumelange
22/04/18 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	Wiltz	0-3	Rumelange
04/04/18 Luxembourg Cup	Rumelange	0-2	Wiltz
05/11/17 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	Rumelange	2-2	Wiltz

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	10	9	1	0	20	3	28
2	FC 03 Differdange	10	9	0	1	30	8	27
3	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	10	8	0	2	22	13	24
4	UN Kaerjeng	10	7	0	3	29	17	21
5	Union Luxembourg	10	5	4	1	24	11	19
6	Bissen	10	6	1	3	25	14	19
7	Progres Niedercorn	11	6	1	4	16	9	19
8	Residence Walferdange	10	5	1	4	19	19	16
9	F91 Dudelange	10	4	1	5	16	16	13
10	US Hostert	10	3	2	5	15	18	11
11	Jeunesse Esch	10	3	1	6	16	21	10
12	Victoria Rosport	10	2	2	6	17	25	8
13	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	11	2	2	7	9	19	8
14	Rumelange	10	2	1	7	12	28	7
15	Wiltz	10	1	1	8	15	28	4
16	Swift Hesperange	10	0	0	10	2	38	-12

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wiltz	Rumelange
US Mondorf-Les-Bains	1-4 L	1-2 L
UNA Strassen	0-2 L	0-2 L
Bissen	2-4 L	0-6 L
Progres Niedercorn	1-2 L	0-3 L
Jeunesse Esch	1-5 L	2-5 L
F91 Dudelange	1-2 L	2-3 L
Victoria Rosport	0-4 L	3-2 W
FC 03 Differdange	1-2 L	0-2 L
Swift Hesperange	7-2 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 8 L	2 W 0 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Wiltz (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wiltz

DWLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-3	1-4	9	6	L
11/10	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
16/09	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-3	2-4	–	–	L
12/09	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
06/09	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	1-5	3	8	L
30/08	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	1-2	0	9	L
23/08	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
15/08	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
09/08	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	6-0	7-2	–	–	W
01/08	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	1-1	–	–	D

Rumelange

WLWLLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-2	3-3	9	10	D
11/10	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
16/09	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-2	2	8	L
13/09	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-4	0-6	3	2	L
06/09	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-3	5	5	L
30/08	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-3	2-5	6	3	L
23/08	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
16/08	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	3-2	–	–	W
09/08	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
02/08	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wiltz vs Rumelange?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wiltz win (42%). Probabilities: Wiltz 42%, draw 22%, Rumelange 36%.

How many goals are expected in Wiltz vs Rumelange?

The model expects 3.95 goals (Wiltz 2.05 · Rumelange 1.9), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Wiltz vs Rumelange?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.