Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 25/10, 16:00

Prediction: Swift Hesperange vs Jeunesse Esch

Team pages: Swift Hesperange · Jeunesse Esch

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Swift Hesperange0.76

Jeunesse Esch2.48

1X2

9% 16% 75%

Swift Hesperange Draw Jeunesse Esch

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

0-2 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Swift Hesperange 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

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Jeunesse Esch 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Swift Hesperange 3–2–1 Jeunesse Esch (6 last)

Jeunesse Esch1-1Swift Hesperange
Swift Hesperange0-1Jeunesse Esch
Jeunesse Esch3-3Swift Hesperange
Swift Hesperange5-1Jeunesse Esch
Jeunesse Esch0-2Swift Hesperange
Jeunesse Esch0-2Swift Hesperange

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Swift Hesperange 1351 · Jeunesse Esch 1484

	Swift Hesperange	Draw	Jeunesse Esch
Our model	9%	17%	74%
Market	9%	16%	75%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jeunesse Esch (rating 1351 vs 1484).
H2H favours Swift Hesperange: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Swift Hesperange	Jeunesse Esch
Goals for / against (FT)	0.2 / 3.8	1.6 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1.9	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/20/80%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.3 / 3.2	1.2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

19.50

X5.75

21.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.82

2 (-2)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.50 → 9.50	Pinn 10.65 ★
X	5.75 → 5.75	Pinn 6.28
2	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.4%

Time*	1	X	2
18:30 +12’	9.50	5.75	1.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:04 +98’	10.65	6.28	1.19

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Swift Hesperange 3–2–1 Jeunesse Esch

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Jeunesse Esch	1-1 HT 1-1	Swift Hesperange
26/10/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Swift Hesperange	0-1 HT 0-0	Jeunesse Esch
23/02/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Jeunesse Esch	3-3 HT 2-2	Swift Hesperange
24/08/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Swift Hesperange	5-1 HT 2-1	Jeunesse Esch
05/05/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Jeunesse Esch	0-2 HT 0-2	Swift Hesperange
24/04/24 Luxembourg Cup	Jeunesse Esch	0-2 HT 0-1	Swift Hesperange

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	10	9	1	0	20	3	28
2	FC 03 Differdange	10	9	0	1	30	8	27
3	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	10	8	0	2	22	13	24
4	UN Kaerjeng	10	7	0	3	29	17	21
5	Union Luxembourg	10	5	4	1	24	11	19
6	Bissen	10	6	1	3	25	14	19
7	Progres Niedercorn	11	6	1	4	16	9	19
8	Residence Walferdange	10	5	1	4	19	19	16
9	F91 Dudelange	10	4	1	5	16	16	13
10	US Hostert	10	3	2	5	15	18	11
11	Jeunesse Esch	10	3	1	6	16	21	10
12	Victoria Rosport	10	2	2	6	17	25	8
13	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	11	2	2	7	9	19	8
14	Rumelange	10	2	1	7	12	28	7
15	Wiltz	10	1	1	8	15	28	4
16	Swift Hesperange	10	0	0	10	2	38	-12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Swift Hesperange	Jeunesse Esch
FC Etzella Ettelbruck	0-3 L	1-0 W
UN Kaerjeng	0-6 L	1-4 L
US Hostert	0-2 L	1-1 D
Union Luxembourg	0-5 L	1-5 L
Wiltz	2-7 L	5-1 W
Rumelange	0-1 L	5-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 6 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Jeunesse Esch (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Swift Hesperange

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-5	1	3	L
11/10	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-3	3	2	L
16/09	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-3	0	1	L
13/09	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-3	6	1	L
06/09	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
30/08	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-3	0-6	–	–	L
23/08	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
16/08	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-5	–	–	L
09/08	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-6	2-7	–	–	L
02/08	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Jeunesse Esch

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
11/10	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	1-4	–	–	L
16/09	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-3	1-5	2	6	L
06/09	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	5-1	5	8	W
30/08	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-1	5-2	4	3	W
23/08	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
16/08	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
09/08	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
01/08	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Swift Hesperange vs Jeunesse Esch?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Jeunesse Esch win (75%). Probabilities: Swift Hesperange 9%, draw 16%, Jeunesse Esch 75%.

How many goals are expected in Swift Hesperange vs Jeunesse Esch?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Swift Hesperange 0.76 · Jeunesse Esch 2.48), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Swift Hesperange vs Jeunesse Esch?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.