Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 25/10, 16:00

Prediction: US Hostert vs UNA Strassen

Team pages: US Hostert · UNA Strassen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

US Hostert0.8

UNA Strassen1.85

1X2

15% 22% 62%

US Hostert Draw UNA Strassen

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2 12%

Recent form · 10 last

US Hostert 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWDDLL

UNA Strassen 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWD

Head-to-head

US Hostert 1–1–4 UNA Strassen (6 last)

US Hostert1-0UNA Strassen
UNA Strassen4-0US Hostert
US Hostert1-2UNA Strassen
US Hostert2-2UNA Strassen
UNA Strassen2-1US Hostert
UNA Strassen2-0US Hostert

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · US Hostert 1482 · UNA Strassen 1627

	US Hostert	Draw	UNA Strassen
Our model	15%	24%	61%
Market	16%	21%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UNA Strassen (rating 1482 vs 1627).
H2H favours UNA Strassen: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	US Hostert	UNA Strassen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	2 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	1.2 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	0 / 1.8	2.4 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.8	5.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.33

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.88

2 (-1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 8.11 ★
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 5.09
2	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:49 +53’	5.50	4.33	1.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:04 +98’	8.11	5.09	1.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · US Hostert 1–1–4 UNA Strassen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale	US Hostert	1-0 HT 0-0	UNA Strassen
31/08/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	UNA Strassen	4-0 HT 0-0	US Hostert
12/03/25 Luxembourg Cup	US Hostert	1-2 HT 0-1	UNA Strassen
02/03/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	US Hostert	2-2 HT 2-1	UNA Strassen
01/09/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	UNA Strassen	2-1 HT 1-1	US Hostert
16/04/23 Luxembourg Division Nationale	UNA Strassen	2-0 HT 1-0	US Hostert

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	10	9	1	0	20	3	28
2	FC 03 Differdange	10	9	0	1	30	8	27
3	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	10	8	0	2	22	13	24
4	UN Kaerjeng	10	7	0	3	29	17	21
5	Union Luxembourg	10	5	4	1	24	11	19
6	Bissen	10	6	1	3	25	14	19
7	Progres Niedercorn	11	6	1	4	16	9	19
8	Residence Walferdange	10	5	1	4	19	19	16
9	F91 Dudelange	10	4	1	5	16	16	13
10	US Hostert	10	3	2	5	15	18	11
11	Jeunesse Esch	10	3	1	6	16	21	10
12	Victoria Rosport	10	2	2	6	17	25	8
13	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	11	2	2	7	9	19	8
14	Rumelange	10	2	1	7	12	28	7
15	Wiltz	10	1	1	8	15	28	4
16	Swift Hesperange	10	0	0	10	2	38	-12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	US Hostert	UNA Strassen
Bissen	1-5 L	2-1 W
Progres Niedercorn	0-2 L	1-0 W
Jeunesse Esch	1-1 D	1-0 W
F91 Dudelange	0-0 D	2-0 W
Victoria Rosport	2-0 W	4-0 W
Residence Walferdange	2-3 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	6 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: UNA Strassen (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

US Hostert

LLWWLWDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	1-5	3	8	L
11/10	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-2	4	7	L
16/09	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
05/09	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	2-0	1	8	W
30/08	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-2	0	2	L
23/08	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
16/08	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-0	5-1	–	–	W
09/08	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	2-4	–	–	L
02/08	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-1	2-3	–	–	L

UNA Strassen

WWWWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
11/10	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	2-0	10	2	W
16/09	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-0	6	8	W
13/09	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-1	11	4	W
06/09	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-0	3-0	–	–	W
30/08	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-1	2	11	W
22/08	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
16/08	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
09/08	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
04/08	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	4-0	4-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in US Hostert vs UNA Strassen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an UNA Strassen win (62%). Probabilities: US Hostert 15%, draw 22%, UNA Strassen 62%.

How many goals are expected in US Hostert vs UNA Strassen?

The model expects 2.65 goals (US Hostert 0.8 · UNA Strassen 1.85), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in US Hostert vs UNA Strassen?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.