Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 18/10, 16:00

Prediction: F91 Dudelange vs Swift Hesperange

Team pages: F91 Dudelange · Swift Hesperange

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.76Total

F91 Dudelange2.88

Swift Hesperange0.88

1X2

78% 14% 8%

F91 Dudelange Draw Swift Hesperange

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

F91 Dudelange 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWLDLW

Swift Hesperange 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

F91 Dudelange 5–1 Swift Hesperange (6 last)

Swift Hesperange0-3F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange3-1Swift Hesperange
Swift Hesperange0-4F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange4-3Swift Hesperange
Swift Hesperange2-1F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange1-0Swift Hesperange

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · F91 Dudelange 1507 · Swift Hesperange 1356

	F91 Dudelange	Draw	Swift Hesperange
Our model	78%	14%	8%
Market	79%	13%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.76 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours F91 Dudelange (rating 1507 vs 1356).
H2H favours F91 Dudelange: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	F91 Dudelange	Swift Hesperange
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	0.5 / 3.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.1 / 1.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	0/30/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.7	0.5 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.3 / 0.5	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.17

X7.00

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.88

2 (+2.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17
X	7.00 → 7.00	Pinn 8.74
2	11.00 → 11.00	Pinn 16.52 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:03 +9’	1.17	7.00	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:24 +55’	1.11	8.33	15.17
18:05 +126’	1.11▲	8.25▼	15.02▼
22:23 +1’	1.10▼	8.74▲	16.52▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · F91 Dudelange 5–0–1 Swift Hesperange

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Swift Hesperange	0-3 HT 0-2	F91 Dudelange
02/11/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	F91 Dudelange	3-1 HT 1-1	Swift Hesperange
03/05/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Swift Hesperange	0-4 HT 0-1	F91 Dudelange
23/11/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	F91 Dudelange	4-3 HT 2-2	Swift Hesperange
28/04/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Swift Hesperange	2-1 HT 1-1	F91 Dudelange
12/11/23 Luxembourg Division Nationale	F91 Dudelange	1-0 HT 0-0	Swift Hesperange

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	9	9	0	0	19	2	27
2	FC 03 Differdange	9	8	0	1	25	5	24
3	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	9	7	0	2	18	12	21
4	Progres Niedercorn	9	6	1	2	15	5	19
5	Union Luxembourg	9	5	3	1	23	10	18
6	UN Kaerjeng	9	6	0	3	27	16	18
7	Bissen	9	5	1	3	20	13	16
8	Residence Walferdange	9	5	0	4	16	16	15
9	US Hostert	9	3	2	4	14	13	11
10	F91 Dudelange	9	3	1	5	11	16	10
11	Victoria Rosport	9	2	2	5	14	20	8
12	Jeunesse Esch	9	2	1	6	15	21	7
13	Rumelange	9	2	0	7	9	25	6
14	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	9	1	2	6	7	18	5
15	Wiltz	9	1	1	7	14	24	4
16	Swift Hesperange	9	0	0	9	2	33	-12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	F91 Dudelange	Swift Hesperange
FC Etzella Ettelbruck	3-1 W	0-3 L
UN Kaerjeng	2-4 L	0-6 L
US Hostert	0-0 D	0-2 L
Union Luxembourg	1-3 L	0-5 L
Wiltz	2-1 W	2-7 L
Rumelange	3-2 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: F91 Dudelange (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

F91 Dudelange

WLLLWWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	3-1	4	9	W
16/09	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	2-4	6	5	L
12/09	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
06/09	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-3	7	7	L
30/08	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-1	6	9	W
23/08	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
16/08	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
09/08	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
04/08	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
23/05	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	4-2	2	3	W

Swift Hesperange

WLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-3	3	2	L
16/09	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-3	0	1	L
13/09	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-3	6	1	L
06/09	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
30/08	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-3	0-6	–	–	L
23/08	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
16/08	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-5	–	–	L
09/08	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-6	2-7	–	–	L
02/08	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
23/05	UT Petange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	3-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in F91 Dudelange vs Swift Hesperange?

According to our model, the most likely result is a F91 Dudelange win (78%). Probabilities: F91 Dudelange 78%, draw 14%, Swift Hesperange 8%.

How many goals are expected in F91 Dudelange vs Swift Hesperange?

The model expects 3.76 goals (F91 Dudelange 2.88 · Swift Hesperange 0.88), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in F91 Dudelange vs Swift Hesperange?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.