Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 18/10, 16:00

Prediction: Victoria Rosport vs FC 03 Differdange

Team pages: Victoria Rosport · FC 03 Differdange

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.37Total

Victoria Rosport0.84

FC 03 Differdange2.53

1X2

10% 16% 74%

Victoria Rosport Draw FC 03 Differdange

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Victoria Rosport 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLWDLLDW

FC 03 Differdange 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Victoria Rosport 0–1–5 FC 03 Differdange (6 last)

FC 03 Differdange4-1Victoria Rosport
FC 03 Differdange3-0Victoria Rosport
Victoria Rosport0-2FC 03 Differdange
Victoria Rosport0-2FC 03 Differdange
FC 03 Differdange3-0Victoria Rosport
FC 03 Differdange2-2Victoria Rosport

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Victoria Rosport 1424 · FC 03 Differdange 1599

	Victoria Rosport	Draw	FC 03 Differdange
Our model	10%	17%	73%
Market	11%	15%	74%

Estimated total (ours) 3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC 03 Differdange (rating 1424 vs 1599).
H2H favours FC 03 Differdange: 5-1-0.
High corners: 13.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Victoria Rosport	FC 03 Differdange
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.4	2.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.9	1.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/0/80%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 5	3.4 / 8.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.8	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

18.50

X6.00

21.22

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.82

2 (-2)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	10.00 → 8.50▼	Pinn 10.04 ★
X	6.25 → 6.00▼	Pinn 6.30
2	1.18 → 1.22▲	Bet365 1.22

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.3% Pinnacle margin 9.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:57 +5’	10.00	6.25	1.18
17:30 +6’	8.50▼	6.00▼	1.22▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:52 +39’	10.41	6.44	1.19
19:50 +95’	10.04▼	6.30▼	1.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Victoria Rosport 0–1–5 FC 03 Differdange

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Luxembourg Cup	FC 03 Differdange	4-1 HT 2-0	Victoria Rosport
19/04/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale	FC 03 Differdange	3-0 HT 2-0	Victoria Rosport
26/10/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Victoria Rosport	0-2 HT 0-0	FC 03 Differdange
19/04/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Victoria Rosport	0-2 HT 0-0	FC 03 Differdange
27/10/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	FC 03 Differdange	3-0 HT 2-0	Victoria Rosport
05/05/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	FC 03 Differdange	2-2 HT 0-1	Victoria Rosport

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	9	9	0	0	19	2	27
2	FC 03 Differdange	9	8	0	1	25	5	24
3	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	9	7	0	2	18	12	21
4	Progres Niedercorn	9	6	1	2	15	5	19
5	Union Luxembourg	9	5	3	1	23	10	18
6	UN Kaerjeng	9	6	0	3	27	16	18
7	Bissen	9	5	1	3	20	13	16
8	Residence Walferdange	9	5	0	4	16	16	15
9	US Hostert	9	3	2	4	14	13	11
10	F91 Dudelange	9	3	1	5	11	16	10
11	Victoria Rosport	9	2	2	5	14	20	8
12	Jeunesse Esch	9	2	1	6	15	21	7
13	Rumelange	9	2	0	7	9	25	6
14	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	9	1	2	6	7	18	5
15	Wiltz	9	1	1	7	14	24	4
16	Swift Hesperange	9	0	0	9	2	33	-12

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Victoria Rosport	FC 03 Differdange
Swift Hesperange	3-0 W	3-0 W
FC Etzella Ettelbruck	1-1 D	1-0 W
UN Kaerjeng	0-5 L	4-1 W
US Hostert	0-2 L	2-0 W
Union Luxembourg	2-2 D	3-0 W
Wiltz	4-0 W	2-1 W
Rumelange	2-3 L	2-0 W
US Mondorf-Les-Bains	2-3 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	7 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC 03 Differdange (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Victoria Rosport

LLLLWDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
16/09	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	1-1	6	11	D
11/09	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-4	0-5	0	5	L
05/09	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-2	9	8	L
30/08	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	2-2	6	3	D
23/08	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
16/08	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	2-3	–	–	L
09/08	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
04/08	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-4	0-4	–	–	L
23/05	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-3	2-4	–	–	L

FC 03 Differdange

LLWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	6-0	5	3	W
16/09	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	3-0	20	1	W
12/09	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-0	9	7	W
06/09	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	4-1	6	3	W
30/08	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	2-0	11	2	W
23/08	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
09/08	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
02/08	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
23/05	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-1	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Victoria Rosport vs FC 03 Differdange?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC 03 Differdange win (74%). Probabilities: Victoria Rosport 10%, draw 16%, FC 03 Differdange 74%.

How many goals are expected in Victoria Rosport vs FC 03 Differdange?

The model expects 3.37 goals (Victoria Rosport 0.84 · FC 03 Differdange 2.53), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Victoria Rosport vs FC 03 Differdange?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.