Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 22/08, 19:00

Prediction: Progres Niedercorn vs UNA Strassen

Team pages: Progres Niedercorn · UNA Strassen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.27Total

Progres Niedercorn1.02

UNA Strassen1.25

1X2

30% 28% 42%

Progres Niedercorn Draw UNA Strassen

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Progres Niedercorn 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLLLLWWW

UNA Strassen 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDWDDWWW

Head-to-head

Progres Niedercorn 2–2–2 UNA Strassen (6 last)

UNA Strassen2-0Progres Niedercorn
Progres Niedercorn0-1UNA Strassen
Progres Niedercorn2-2UNA Strassen
Progres Niedercorn1-0UNA Strassen
UNA Strassen1-1Progres Niedercorn
UNA Strassen0-1Progres Niedercorn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Progres Niedercorn 1480 · UNA Strassen 1586

	Progres Niedercorn	Draw	UNA Strassen
Our model	29%	31%	40%
Market	31%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UNA Strassen (rating 1480 vs 1586).
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Progres Niedercorn	UNA Strassen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.5 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.5	3 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.5	2.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.40

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.50
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.26 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:36 +6’	2.88	3.40	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:39 +3’	2.84	3.37	2.26
18:21 +20’	2.86▲	3.50▲	2.26

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Progres Niedercorn 2–2–2 UNA Strassen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale	UNA Strassen	2-0 HT 0-0	Progres Niedercorn
13/09/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Progres Niedercorn	0-1 HT 0-0	UNA Strassen
05/07/25 Europe Friendlies	Progres Niedercorn	2-2 HT 0-2	UNA Strassen
05/04/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Progres Niedercorn	1-0 HT 1-0	UNA Strassen
29/09/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	UNA Strassen	1-1 HT 1-0	Progres Niedercorn
17/03/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	UNA Strassen	0-1 HT 0-1	Progres Niedercorn

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Luxembourg	3	3	0	0	11	1	9
2	UNA Strassen	3	3	0	0	7	0	9
3	Progres Niedercorn	3	3	0	0	7	1	9
4	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	3	3	0	0	7	4	9
5	FC 03 Differdange	3	2	0	1	6	4	6
6	Residence Walferdange	3	2	0	1	5	4	6
7	Bissen	3	2	0	1	4	4	6
7	Rumelange	3	2	0	1	4	4	6
9	Wiltz	3	1	1	1	9	5	4
10	US Hostert	3	1	0	2	9	8	3
11	UN Kaerjeng	3	1	0	2	6	9	3
12	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	3	0	1	2	2	7	1
13	Jeunesse Esch	3	0	0	3	1	5	0
14	F91 Dudelange	3	0	0	3	0	5	0
15	Victoria Rosport	3	0	0	3	4	10	0
16	Swift Hesperange	3	0	0	3	2	13	-12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Progres Niedercorn	UNA Strassen
Jeunesse Esch	2-1 W	1-0 W
F91 Dudelange	2-4 L	2-0 W
FC 03 Differdange	2-3 L	0-0 D
Jeunesse Canach	0-1 L	2-0 W
FC Rodange	1-0 W	1-2 L
Union Luxembourg	2-2 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: UNA Strassen (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Progres Niedercorn

DDWLLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	4-0	3	10	W
09/08	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/08	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	2-1	8	8	W
23/05	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-4	1	3	L
17/05	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	1-2	10	1	L
08/05	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	2-3	5	9	L
03/05	Jeunesse Canach Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
26/04	FC Rodange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
18/04	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	2-2	7	2	D
12/04	FC Mamer 32 Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-1	10	2	D

UNA Strassen

WLWDWDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
09/08	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
04/08	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	4-0	4-0	8	4	W
23/05	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-0	0	0	D
17/05	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
10/05	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	3-0	3	7	W
03/05	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
26/04	Jeunesse Canach Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
19/04	FC Rodange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
12/04	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Progres Niedercorn vs UNA Strassen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an UNA Strassen win (42%). Probabilities: Progres Niedercorn 30%, draw 28%, UNA Strassen 42%.

How many goals are expected in Progres Niedercorn vs UNA Strassen?

The model expects 2.27 goals (Progres Niedercorn 1.02 · UNA Strassen 1.25), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Progres Niedercorn vs UNA Strassen?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.