Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 30/08, 16:00

Prediction: Union Luxembourg vs Victoria Rosport

Team pages: Union Luxembourg · Victoria Rosport

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.9Total

Union Luxembourg2.51

Victoria Rosport1.39

1X2

61% 21% 19%

Union Luxembourg Draw Victoria Rosport

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Luxembourg 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWWWWL

Victoria Rosport 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLLLLW

Head-to-head

Union Luxembourg 5–1 Victoria Rosport (6 last)

Victoria Rosport3-4Union Luxembourg
Union Luxembourg1-0Victoria Rosport
Union Luxembourg2-0Victoria Rosport
Union Luxembourg3-1Victoria Rosport
Victoria Rosport0-2Union Luxembourg
Union Luxembourg0-3Victoria Rosport

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Luxembourg 1553 · Victoria Rosport 1416

	Union Luxembourg	Draw	Victoria Rosport
Our model	61%	20%	19%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.9 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Luxembourg (rating 1553 vs 1416).
H2H favours Union Luxembourg: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Luxembourg	Victoria Rosport
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.7	1.4 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.5 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.7	1.7 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.3	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.10

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.56
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 5.10 ★
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:53 +4’	1.50	4.10	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:56 +1’	1.56	5.10	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Luxembourg 5–0–1 Victoria Rosport

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Victoria Rosport	3-4 HT 2-2	Union Luxembourg
28/09/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Union Luxembourg	1-0 HT 1-0	Victoria Rosport
11/05/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Union Luxembourg	2-0 HT 0-0	Victoria Rosport
12/03/25 Luxembourg Cup	Union Luxembourg	3-1 HT 2-0	Victoria Rosport
01/12/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Victoria Rosport	0-2 HT 0-0	Union Luxembourg
07/04/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Union Luxembourg	0-3 HT 0-1	Victoria Rosport

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	4	4	0	0	8	0	12
2	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	4	4	0	0	10	5	12
3	Union Luxembourg	4	3	0	1	11	4	9
4	FC 03 Differdange	4	3	0	1	9	4	9
5	Progres Niedercorn	4	3	0	1	7	2	9
6	Bissen	4	3	0	1	6	5	9
7	US Hostert	4	2	0	2	11	8	6
8	Residence Walferdange	4	2	0	2	6	6	6
9	Rumelange	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
10	UN Kaerjeng	4	2	0	2	7	9	6
11	Wiltz	4	1	1	2	9	9	4
12	Victoria Rosport	4	1	0	3	8	10	3
13	F91 Dudelange	4	1	0	3	3	7	3
14	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	4	0	1	3	2	8	1
15	Jeunesse Esch	4	0	0	4	2	8	0
16	Swift Hesperange	4	0	0	4	2	15	-12

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Luxembourg	Victoria Rosport
FC 03 Differdange	0-3 L	0-3 L
Swift Hesperange	5-0 W	0-3 L
US Hostert	1-0 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Union Luxembourg (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Luxembourg

DWLLWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
16/08	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	5-0	–	–	W
09/08	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
02/08	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	4-1	5-1	6	3	W
23/05	FC Rodange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	6-1	4	4	W
17/05	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
10/05	FC Mamer 32 Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	2-3	7	10	L
03/05	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-3	0-5	5	5	L
26/04	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	5-2	3	9	W
18/04	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	2-2	2	2	D

Victoria Rosport

LLWWLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
16/08	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	2-3	5	3	L
09/08	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	2-3	1	4	L
04/08	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-4	0-4	2	4	L
23/05	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-3	2-4	–	–	L
17/05	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-3	2	1	L
10/05	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
03/05	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
26/04	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
19/04	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Luxembourg vs Victoria Rosport?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Luxembourg win (61%). Probabilities: Union Luxembourg 61%, draw 21%, Victoria Rosport 19%.

How many goals are expected in Union Luxembourg vs Victoria Rosport?

The model expects 3.9 goals (Union Luxembourg 2.51 · Victoria Rosport 1.39), with a 58% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Luxembourg vs Victoria Rosport?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.