Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 30/08, 16:00
Prediction: US Mondorf-Les-Bains vs Progres Niedercorn
Team pages: US Mondorf-Les-Bains · Progres Niedercorn
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.62Total
US Mondorf-Les-Bains1.55
Progres Niedercorn1.07
1X2
US Mondorf-Les-Bains
Draw
Progres Niedercorn
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
US Mondorf-Les-Bains
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Progres Niedercorn
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
US Mondorf-Les-Bains
2–1–3
Progres Niedercorn
(6 last)
- US Mondorf-Les-Bains1-0Progres Niedercorn
- Progres Niedercorn1-0US Mondorf-Les-Bains
- US Mondorf-Les-Bains2-1Progres Niedercorn
- Progres Niedercorn1-1US Mondorf-Les-Bains
- US Mondorf-Les-Bains2-4Progres Niedercorn
- US Mondorf-Les-Bains0-2Progres Niedercorn
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · US Mondorf-Les-Bains 1568 · Progres Niedercorn 1474
| US Mondorf-Les-Bains | Draw | Progres Niedercorn | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Market | 49% | 25% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours US Mondorf-Les-Bains (rating 1568 vs 1474).
- H2H favours Progres Niedercorn: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| US Mondorf-Les-Bains | Progres Niedercorn | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.7 | 1.5 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4 | 3 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.3 | 4.6 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · US Mondorf-Les-Bains 2–1–3 Progres Niedercorn
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale | US Mondorf-Les-Bains | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Progres Niedercorn |
| 09/08/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale | Progres Niedercorn | 1-0 HT 0-0 | US Mondorf-Les-Bains |
| 27/04/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale | US Mondorf-Les-Bains | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Progres Niedercorn |
| 03/11/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale | Progres Niedercorn | 1-1 HT 0-0 | US Mondorf-Les-Bains |
| 05/05/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale | US Mondorf-Les-Bains | 2-4 HT 0-2 | Progres Niedercorn |
| 01/05/24 Luxembourg Cup | US Mondorf-Les-Bains | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Progres Niedercorn |
Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | US Mondorf-Les-Bains | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 12 |
| 3 | Union Luxembourg | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | FC 03 Differdange | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Progres Niedercorn | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Bissen | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| 7 | US Hostert | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 6 |
| 8 | Residence Walferdange | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 9 | Rumelange | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 10 | UN Kaerjeng | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 |
| 11 | Wiltz | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 |
| 12 | Victoria Rosport | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 3 |
| 13 | F91 Dudelange | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 14 | FC Etzella Ettelbruck | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| 15 | Jeunesse Esch | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 | -12 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | US Mondorf-Les-Bains | Progres Niedercorn |
|---|---|---|
| Jeunesse Esch | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| F91 Dudelange | 1-0 W | 2-4 L |
| FC 03 Differdange | 3-2 W | 2-3 L |
| UNA Strassen | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: US Mondorf-Les-Bains (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
US Mondorf-Les-Bains
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale |
2-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 16/08 | F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale |
2-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
2-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 17/05 | UT Petange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale |
2-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/04 | F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | D |
Progres Niedercorn
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 10 | W |
| 09/08 | Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/08 | Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 23/05 | F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
2-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 03/05 | Jeunesse Canach Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | FC Rodange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in US Mondorf-Les-Bains vs Progres Niedercorn?
According to our model, the most likely result is a US Mondorf-Les-Bains win (48%). Probabilities: US Mondorf-Les-Bains 48%, draw 26%, Progres Niedercorn 26%.
How many goals are expected in US Mondorf-Les-Bains vs Progres Niedercorn?
The model expects 2.62 goals (US Mondorf-Les-Bains 1.55 · Progres Niedercorn 1.07), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in US Mondorf-Les-Bains vs Progres Niedercorn?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.