Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 30/08, 16:00

Prediction: US Hostert vs FC 03 Differdange

Team pages: US Hostert · FC 03 Differdange

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

US Hostert1.05

FC 03 Differdange2.07

1X2

18% 22% 60%

US Hostert Draw FC 03 Differdange

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

US Hostert 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWLLWW

FC 03 Differdange 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLLWWW

Head-to-head

US Hostert 0–6 FC 03 Differdange (6 last)

FC 03 Differdange3-2US Hostert
US Hostert0-1FC 03 Differdange
FC 03 Differdange4-0US Hostert
US Hostert1-3FC 03 Differdange
FC 03 Differdange1-0US Hostert
US Hostert0-5FC 03 Differdange

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · US Hostert 1500 · FC 03 Differdange 1583

	US Hostert	Draw	FC 03 Differdange
Our model	18%	23%	60%
Market	18%	22%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC 03 Differdange (rating 1500 vs 1583).
H2H favours FC 03 Differdange: 6-0-0.
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	US Hostert	FC 03 Differdange
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2	1.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.5	2.8 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.3	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.10

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.00

2 (-1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.84 ★
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.42
2	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:53 +5’	5.00	4.10	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:56 +2’	5.84	4.42	1.44

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · US Hostert 0–0–6 FC 03 Differdange

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale	FC 03 Differdange	3-2 HT 1-0	US Hostert
14/09/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	US Hostert	0-1 HT 0-0	FC 03 Differdange
27/04/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	FC 03 Differdange	4-0 HT 2-0	US Hostert
03/11/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	US Hostert	1-3 HT 1-1	FC 03 Differdange
14/05/23 Luxembourg Division Nationale	FC 03 Differdange	1-0 HT 0-0	US Hostert
10/12/22 Luxembourg Division Nationale	US Hostert	0-5 HT 0-1	FC 03 Differdange

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	4	4	0	0	8	0	12
2	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	4	4	0	0	10	5	12
3	Union Luxembourg	4	3	0	1	11	4	9
4	FC 03 Differdange	4	3	0	1	9	4	9
5	Progres Niedercorn	4	3	0	1	7	2	9
6	Bissen	4	3	0	1	6	5	9
7	US Hostert	4	2	0	2	11	8	6
8	Residence Walferdange	4	2	0	2	6	6	6
9	Rumelange	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
10	UN Kaerjeng	4	2	0	2	7	9	6
11	Wiltz	4	1	1	2	9	9	4
12	Victoria Rosport	4	1	0	3	8	10	3
13	F91 Dudelange	4	1	0	3	3	7	3
14	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	4	0	1	3	2	8	1
15	Jeunesse Esch	4	0	0	4	2	8	0
16	Swift Hesperange	4	0	0	4	2	15	-12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	US Hostert	FC 03 Differdange
UN Kaerjeng	2-4 L	2-0 W
Victoria Rosport	4-2 W	3-0 W
Union Luxembourg	0-1 L	3-0 W
US Mondorf-Les-Bains	0-4 L	2-3 L
Bissen	0-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC 03 Differdange (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

US Hostert

LLWWLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
16/08	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-0	5-1	4	4	W
09/08	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	2-4	3	7	L
02/08	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-1	2-3	7	7	L
23/05	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-1	4-2	–	–	W
17/05	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
10/05	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
03/05	FC Mamer 32 Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	4-2	10	7	W
26/04	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
19/04	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-3	0-3	9	8	L

FC 03 Differdange

WWDWWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	2-1	13	9	W
09/08	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
02/08	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
23/05	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
17/05	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
08/05	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	3-2	6	9	W
03/05	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
26/04	UT Petange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
19/04	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in US Hostert vs FC 03 Differdange?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC 03 Differdange win (60%). Probabilities: US Hostert 18%, draw 22%, FC 03 Differdange 60%.

How many goals are expected in US Hostert vs FC 03 Differdange?

The model expects 3.12 goals (US Hostert 1.05 · FC 03 Differdange 2.07), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in US Hostert vs FC 03 Differdange?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.