Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 23/08, 16:00

Prediction: FC 03 Differdange vs Union Luxembourg

Team pages: FC 03 Differdange · Union Luxembourg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

FC 03 Differdange2.01

Union Luxembourg1.21

1X2

55% 23% 22%

FC 03 Differdange Draw Union Luxembourg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC 03 Differdange 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Union Luxembourg 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC 03 Differdange 4–1–1 Union Luxembourg (6 last)

FC 03 Differdange2-0Union Luxembourg
Union Luxembourg0-2FC 03 Differdange
FC 03 Differdange5-1Union Luxembourg
FC 03 Differdange2-1Union Luxembourg
FC 03 Differdange1-1Union Luxembourg
Union Luxembourg1-0FC 03 Differdange

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC 03 Differdange 1589 · Union Luxembourg 1524

	FC 03 Differdange	Draw	Union Luxembourg
Our model	55%	23%	22%
Market	55%	23%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC 03 Differdange (rating 1589 vs 1524).
H2H favours FC 03 Differdange: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC 03 Differdange	Union Luxembourg
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.8	2.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.9	2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.80

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.68
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.30 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
19:07 +65’	1.61	3.80	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:54 +18’	1.68	3.77	4.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC 03 Differdange 4–1–1 Union Luxembourg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Luxembourg Cup	FC 03 Differdange	2-0 HT 0-0	Union Luxembourg
14/02/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Union Luxembourg	0-2 HT 0-2	FC 03 Differdange
29/10/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	FC 03 Differdange	5-1 HT 2-0	Union Luxembourg
21/06/25 Europe Friendlies	FC 03 Differdange	2-1 HT 1-0	Union Luxembourg
18/05/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	FC 03 Differdange	1-1 HT 1-0	Union Luxembourg
07/12/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Union Luxembourg	1-0 HT 0-0	FC 03 Differdange

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Luxembourg	3	3	0	0	11	1	9
2	UNA Strassen	3	3	0	0	7	0	9
3	Progres Niedercorn	3	3	0	0	7	1	9
4	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	3	3	0	0	7	4	9
5	FC 03 Differdange	3	2	0	1	6	4	6
6	Residence Walferdange	3	2	0	1	5	4	6
7	Bissen	3	2	0	1	4	4	6
7	Rumelange	3	2	0	1	4	4	6
9	Wiltz	3	1	1	1	9	5	4
10	US Hostert	3	1	0	2	9	8	3
11	UN Kaerjeng	3	1	0	2	6	9	3
12	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	3	0	1	2	2	7	1
13	Jeunesse Esch	3	0	0	3	1	5	0
14	F91 Dudelange	3	0	0	3	0	5	0
15	Victoria Rosport	3	0	0	3	4	10	0
16	Swift Hesperange	3	0	0	3	2	13	-12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC 03 Differdange	Union Luxembourg
Bissen	0-1 L	0-5 L
UN Kaerjeng	2-0 W	5-1 W
Progres Niedercorn	3-2 W	2-2 D
UNA Strassen	0-0 D	0-1 L
Swift Hesperange	5-1 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC 03 Differdange (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC 03 Differdange

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	2-1	13	9	W
09/08	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
02/08	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
23/05	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
17/05	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
08/05	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	3-2	6	9	W
03/05	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
26/04	UT Petange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
19/04	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
12/04	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	4-0	5-1	2	2	W

Union Luxembourg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	5-0	–	–	W
09/08	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
02/08	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	4-1	5-1	6	3	W
23/05	FC Rodange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	6-1	4	4	W
17/05	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
10/05	FC Mamer 32 Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	2-3	7	10	L
03/05	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-3	0-5	5	5	L
26/04	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	5-2	3	9	W
18/04	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	2-2	2	2	D
12/04	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-1	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC 03 Differdange vs Union Luxembourg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC 03 Differdange win (55%). Probabilities: FC 03 Differdange 55%, draw 23%, Union Luxembourg 22%.

How many goals are expected in FC 03 Differdange vs Union Luxembourg?

The model expects 3.22 goals (FC 03 Differdange 2.01 · Union Luxembourg 1.21), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC 03 Differdange vs Union Luxembourg?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.