Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 23/08, 16:00
Prediction: Swift Hesperange vs US Hostert
Team pages: Swift Hesperange · US Hostert
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.34Total
Swift Hesperange1.24
US Hostert2.1
1X2
Swift Hesperange
Draw
US Hostert
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Swift Hesperange
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
US Hostert
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Swift Hesperange
3–1–2
US Hostert
(6 last)
- Swift Hesperange0-1US Hostert
- US Hostert1-1Swift Hesperange
- Swift Hesperange0-3US Hostert
- Swift Hesperange3-0US Hostert
- US Hostert1-5Swift Hesperange
- Swift Hesperange5-1US Hostert
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Swift Hesperange 1421 · US Hostert 1498
| Swift Hesperange | Draw | US Hostert | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| Market | 21% | 23% | 56% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours US Hostert (rating 1421 vs 1498).
- H2H favours Swift Hesperange: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Swift Hesperange | US Hostert | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2.6 | 1.9 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 1.5 | 0.9 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 30/10/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.3 | 3.5 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.3 | 6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Swift Hesperange 3–1–2 US Hostert
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale | Swift Hesperange | 0-1 HT 0-0 | US Hostert |
| 30/11/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale | US Hostert | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Swift Hesperange |
| 09/11/25 Luxembourg Cup | Swift Hesperange | 0-3 | US Hostert |
| 09/02/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale | Swift Hesperange | 3-0 HT 2-0 | US Hostert |
| 11/08/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale | US Hostert | 1-5 HT 1-2 | Swift Hesperange |
| 12/02/23 Luxembourg Division Nationale | Swift Hesperange | 5-1 HT 3-1 | US Hostert |
Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Luxembourg | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | UNA Strassen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Progres Niedercorn | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | US Mondorf-Les-Bains | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | FC 03 Differdange | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Residence Walferdange | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Bissen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Rumelange | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | Wiltz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 4 |
| 10 | US Hostert | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 3 |
| 11 | UN Kaerjeng | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
| 12 | FC Etzella Ettelbruck | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| 13 | Jeunesse Esch | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 | F91 Dudelange | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 | Victoria Rosport | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -12 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Swift Hesperange | US Hostert |
|---|---|---|
| Union Luxembourg | 0-5 L | 0-1 L |
| Victoria Rosport | 3-0 W | 4-2 W |
| US Mondorf-Les-Bains | 0-1 L | 0-4 L |
| F91 Dudelange | 0-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Swift Hesperange
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 09/08 | Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-6 | 2-7 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 23/05 | UT Petange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-4 | 1-5 | 3 | 2 | L |
US Hostert
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale |
3-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 02/08 | Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
2-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 23/05 | Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale |
3-1 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | FC Mamer 32 Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-1 | 4-2 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 26/04 | US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-2 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 19/04 | Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-3 | 0-3 | 9 | 8 | L |
| 12/04 | F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Swift Hesperange vs US Hostert?
According to our model, the most likely result is an US Hostert win (56%). Probabilities: Swift Hesperange 21%, draw 23%, US Hostert 56%.
How many goals are expected in Swift Hesperange vs US Hostert?
The model expects 3.34 goals (Swift Hesperange 1.24 · US Hostert 2.1), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Swift Hesperange vs US Hostert?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.