Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 05/09, 18:00

Prediction: Victoria Rosport vs US Hostert

Team pages: Victoria Rosport · US Hostert

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.79Total

Victoria Rosport1.85

US Hostert1.95

1X2

36% 24% 40%

Victoria Rosport Draw US Hostert

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Victoria Rosport 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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US Hostert 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Victoria Rosport 3–1–2 US Hostert (6 last)

Victoria Rosport2-4US Hostert
US Hostert1-4Victoria Rosport
Victoria Rosport1-2US Hostert
US Hostert1-4Victoria Rosport
US Hostert1-3Victoria Rosport
Victoria Rosport2-2US Hostert

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Victoria Rosport 1435 · US Hostert 1508

	Victoria Rosport	Draw	US Hostert
Our model	37%	23%	41%
Market	36%	24%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.79 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours US Hostert (rating 1435 vs 1508).
H2H favours Victoria Rosport: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Victoria Rosport	US Hostert
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.2	2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.4	0.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.6	2.8 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.70

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 00:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.75▲	Pinn 2.90 ★
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Bet365 3.70
2	2.30 → 2.10▼	Pinn 2.17

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:11 +5’	2.50	3.60	2.30
16:34 +5’	2.50	3.70▲	2.25▼
00:48 +5’	2.75▲	3.70	2.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:38 +1’	2.90	3.49	2.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Victoria Rosport 3–1–2 US Hostert

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Victoria Rosport	2-4 HT 1-3	US Hostert
03/08/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	US Hostert	1-4 HT 0-1	Victoria Rosport
13/04/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Victoria Rosport	1-2 HT 0-2	US Hostert
20/10/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	US Hostert	1-4 HT 0-2	Victoria Rosport
05/03/23 Luxembourg Division Nationale	US Hostert	1-3 HT 1-2	Victoria Rosport
04/09/22 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Victoria Rosport	2-2 HT 0-0	US Hostert

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	5	5	0	0	10	1	15
2	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	5	5	0	0	12	6	15
3	FC 03 Differdange	5	4	0	1	11	4	12
4	Union Luxembourg	5	3	1	1	13	6	10
5	Residence Walferdange	5	3	0	2	11	6	9
6	UN Kaerjeng	5	3	0	2	13	9	9
7	Progres Niedercorn	5	3	0	2	8	4	9
8	Bissen	5	3	0	2	7	7	9
9	US Hostert	5	2	0	3	11	10	6
10	F91 Dudelange	5	2	0	3	5	8	6
11	Rumelange	5	2	0	3	8	12	6
12	Wiltz	5	1	1	3	10	11	4
13	Victoria Rosport	5	1	1	3	10	12	4
14	Jeunesse Esch	5	1	0	4	7	10	3
15	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	5	0	1	4	2	13	1
16	Swift Hesperange	5	0	0	5	2	21	-12

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Victoria Rosport	US Hostert
Union Luxembourg	2-2 D	0-1 L
US Mondorf-Les-Bains	2-3 L	0-4 L
Swift Hesperange	0-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Victoria Rosport (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Victoria Rosport

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	2-2	6	3	D
23/08	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
16/08	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	2-3	5	3	L
09/08	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	2-3	1	4	L
04/08	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-4	0-4	2	4	L
23/05	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-3	2-4	–	–	L
17/05	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-3	2	1	L
10/05	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
03/05	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
26/04	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	1-2	4	8	L

US Hostert

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-2	0	2	L
23/08	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
16/08	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-0	5-1	4	4	W
09/08	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	2-4	3	7	L
02/08	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-1	2-3	7	7	L
23/05	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-1	4-2	–	–	W
17/05	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
10/05	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
03/05	FC Mamer 32 Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	4-2	10	7	W
26/04	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Victoria Rosport vs US Hostert?

According to our model, the most likely result is an US Hostert win (40%). Probabilities: Victoria Rosport 36%, draw 24%, US Hostert 40%.

How many goals are expected in Victoria Rosport vs US Hostert?

The model expects 3.79 goals (Victoria Rosport 1.85 · US Hostert 1.95), with a 59% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Victoria Rosport vs US Hostert?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.