Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 06/09, 16:00

Prediction: FC 03 Differdange vs UN Kaerjeng

Team pages: FC 03 Differdange · UN Kaerjeng

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

FC 03 Differdange2.14

UN Kaerjeng0.84

1X2

67% 20% 13%

FC 03 Differdange Draw UN Kaerjeng

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC 03 Differdange 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWLLWWWW

UN Kaerjeng 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLWLWW

Head-to-head

FC 03 Differdange 5–1–0 UN Kaerjeng (6 last)

FC 03 Differdange2-0UN Kaerjeng
UN Kaerjeng1-1FC 03 Differdange
UN Kaerjeng0-4FC 03 Differdange
FC 03 Differdange4-0UN Kaerjeng
UN Kaerjeng0-1FC 03 Differdange
UN Kaerjeng0-2FC 03 Differdange

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC 03 Differdange 1578 · UN Kaerjeng 1530

	FC 03 Differdange	Draw	UN Kaerjeng
Our model	66%	21%	13%
Market	67%	19%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC 03 Differdange (rating 1578 vs 1530).
H2H favours FC 03 Differdange: 5-1-0.
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC 03 Differdange	UN Kaerjeng
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.7	1.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 7.1	4.2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	5.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.75

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.08
2	6.50 → 6.50	Pinn 7.48 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
19:45 +8’	1.33	4.75	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:21 +211’	1.31	5.08	7.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC 03 Differdange 5–1–0 UN Kaerjeng

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale	FC 03 Differdange	2-0 HT 1-0	UN Kaerjeng
07/12/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	UN Kaerjeng	1-1 HT 0-1	FC 03 Differdange
12/03/25 Luxembourg Cup	UN Kaerjeng	0-4 HT 0-1	FC 03 Differdange
25/02/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	FC 03 Differdange	4-0 HT 1-0	UN Kaerjeng
27/08/23 Luxembourg Division Nationale	UN Kaerjeng	0-1 HT 0-1	FC 03 Differdange
15/07/23 Europe Friendlies	UN Kaerjeng	0-2 HT 0-1	FC 03 Differdange

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	5	5	0	0	10	1	15
2	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	5	5	0	0	12	6	15
3	FC 03 Differdange	5	4	0	1	11	4	12
4	Union Luxembourg	5	3	1	1	13	6	10
5	Residence Walferdange	5	3	0	2	11	6	9
6	UN Kaerjeng	5	3	0	2	13	9	9
7	Progres Niedercorn	5	3	0	2	8	4	9
8	US Hostert	6	3	0	3	13	10	9
9	Bissen	5	3	0	2	7	7	9
10	F91 Dudelange	5	2	0	3	5	8	6
11	Rumelange	5	2	0	3	8	12	6
12	Wiltz	5	1	1	3	10	11	4
13	Victoria Rosport	6	1	1	4	10	14	4
14	Jeunesse Esch	5	1	0	4	7	10	3
15	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	5	0	1	4	2	13	1
16	Swift Hesperange	5	0	0	5	2	21	-12

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC 03 Differdange	UN Kaerjeng
US Hostert	2-0 W	4-2 W
Union Luxembourg	3-0 W	1-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC 03 Differdange (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC 03 Differdange

WDWWLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	2-0	11	2	W
23/08	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	2-1	13	9	W
09/08	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
02/08	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
23/05	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
17/05	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
08/05	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	3-2	6	9	W
03/05	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
26/04	UT Petange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-0	7	4	W

UN Kaerjeng

LWWLLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-0	6-0	–	–	W
23/08	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
16/08	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	1-2	10	4	L
09/08	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-1	4-2	2	7	W
02/08	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-4	1-5	6	3	L
23/05	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
17/05	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
10/05	Jeunesse Canach Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
03/05	FC Rodange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	3-0	4	8	W
26/04	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	2-5	5	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC 03 Differdange vs UN Kaerjeng?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC 03 Differdange win (67%). Probabilities: FC 03 Differdange 67%, draw 20%, UN Kaerjeng 13%.

How many goals are expected in FC 03 Differdange vs UN Kaerjeng?

The model expects 2.98 goals (FC 03 Differdange 2.14 · UN Kaerjeng 0.84), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC 03 Differdange vs UN Kaerjeng?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.