Football · Malawi Super League · 19/07, 14:30

Prediction: Kamuzu Barracks vs Blue Eagles

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Kamuzu Barracks0.92

Blue Eagles1.7

1X2

19% 26% 55%

Kamuzu Barracks Draw Blue Eagles

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Kamuzu Barracks 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLLLLL

Blue Eagles 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWWLWD

Head-to-head

Kamuzu Barracks 1–4–1 Blue Eagles (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kamuzu Barracks 1434 · Blue Eagles 1545

	Kamuzu Barracks	Draw	Blue Eagles
Our model	19%	26%	55%
Market	19%	26%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Blue Eagles (rating 1434 vs 1545).
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kamuzu Barracks	Blue Eagles
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.3	1.3 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.2	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.75

X3.40

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.6

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
08:14 +2’	4.75	3.40	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kamuzu Barracks 1–4–1 Blue Eagles

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/12/25 Malawi Super League	Blue Eagles	3-1 HT 3-0	Kamuzu Barracks
02/08/25 Malawi Super League	Kamuzu Barracks	3-0 HT 2-0	Blue Eagles
20/05/23 Malawi Super League	Kamuzu Barracks	1-1 HT 0-1	Blue Eagles
28/05/22 Malawi Super League	Blue Eagles	0-0 HT 0-0	Kamuzu Barracks
29/08/21 Malawi Super League	Blue Eagles	0-0 HT 0-0	Kamuzu Barracks
22/11/20 World Club Friendlies	Blue Eagles	3-3 HT 1-2	Kamuzu Barracks

Standings · Malawi Super League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Blue Eagles	9	6	1	2	14	8	19
2	Big Bullets	9	5	4	0	12	6	19
3	Mighty Wanderers	9	5	3	1	18	6	18
4	Silver Strikers	9	5	3	1	14	3	18
5	Ekhaya FC	9	4	3	2	12	6	15
6	Red Lions	9	4	3	2	8	6	15
7	Masters FC	9	5	0	4	11	10	15
8	Moyale Barracks	9	3	3	3	8	10	12
9	Mitundu Baptist FC	9	3	2	4	8	10	11
10	Civil Service Utd	9	3	2	4	6	9	11
11	Chitipa United	9	3	1	5	6	12	10
12	MAFCO	9	2	3	4	7	8	9
13	Karonga United	9	2	3	4	9	14	9
14	Dedza Dynamos	9	2	2	5	5	15	8
15	Creck SC	9	1	2	6	6	13	5
16	Kamuzu Barracks	9	1	1	7	7	15	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kamuzu Barracks	Blue Eagles
Chitipa United	1-2 L	0-1 L
Big Bullets	1-2 L	1-1 D
Dedza Dynamos	0-1 L	2-0 W
Ekhaya FC	1-4 L	2-1 W
Creck SC	3-1 W	2-0 W
Karonga United	1-1 D	3-2 W
Mitundu Baptist FC	0-1 L	2-3 L
Silver Strikers	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Blue Eagles (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Kamuzu Barracks

WLLDWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/07	Masters FC Malawi Super League	0-1	0-1	4	0	L
27/06	Chitipa United Malawi Super League	0-0	1-2	2	4	L
21/06	Big Bullets Malawi Super League	0-1	1-2	6	1	L
31/05	Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
23/05	Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League	0-2	1-4	5	2	L
16/05	Creck SC Malawi Super League	2-1	3-1	1	2	W
10/05	Karonga United Malawi Super League	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
02/05	Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
25/04	Silver Strikers Malawi Super League	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
03/01	Ntaja Rangers Malawi Challenge Cup	1-0	5-1	0	2	W

Blue Eagles

WLWWDWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	Civil Service Utd Malawi Top 8 Cup	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
04/07	Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
27/06	Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League	0-1	2-3	4	1	L
21/06	Karonga United Malawi Super League	2-2	3-2	8	4	W
30/05	Creck SC Malawi Super League	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
23/05	Big Bullets Malawi Super League	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
17/05	Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
10/05	Silver Strikers Malawi Super League	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
02/05	Chitipa United Malawi Super League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
26/04	Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League	2-0	2-1	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kamuzu Barracks vs Blue Eagles?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Blue Eagles win (55%). Probabilities: Kamuzu Barracks 19%, draw 26%, Blue Eagles 55%.

How many goals are expected in Kamuzu Barracks vs Blue Eagles?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Kamuzu Barracks 0.92 · Blue Eagles 1.7), with a 59% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Kamuzu Barracks vs Blue Eagles?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.