Football · Portugal Liga 3 · 09/08, 12:00
Prediction: AD Marco 09 vs Pacos Ferreira
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.28Total
AD Marco 091.01
Pacos Ferreira1.27
1X2
AD Marco 09
Draw
Pacos Ferreira
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
AD Marco 09
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Pacos Ferreira
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AD Marco 09 1526 · Pacos Ferreira 1485
| AD Marco 09 | Draw | Pacos Ferreira | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 31% | 41% |
| Market | 30% | 27% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AD Marco 09 (rating 1526 vs 1485).
- High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AD Marco 09 | Pacos Ferreira | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 6.1 | 3.1 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.5 | 5.4 / 0.3 |
Standings · Portugal Liga 3 · Liga 3 26/27, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | AD Fafe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | AD Marco 09 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Trofense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Pacos Ferreira | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Leca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Sao Joao Ver | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | SC Vianense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Varzim | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Guimaraes B | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AD Marco 09
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Cinfaes Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Paredes Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 26/04 | Braga B Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | AD Fafe Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 12/04 | Sao Joao Ver Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 11 | D |
| 21/03 | AD Sanjoanense Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 15/03 | AD Fafe Portugal Liga 3 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 08/03 | AD Sanjoanense Portugal Liga 3 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 01/03 | Sao Joao Ver Portugal Liga 3 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 22/02 | Braga B Portugal Liga 3 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 1 | L |
Pacos Ferreira
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05 | Penafiel Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | SC Farense Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | Feirense Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 15 | 11 | L |
| 26/04 | Lusitania Lourosa Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 18/04 | Chaves Portugal Segunda Liga |
3-3 | 4-3 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 10/04 | Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 04/04 | Maritimo Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 29/03 | UD Leiria Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 22/03 | Leixoes Portugal Segunda Liga |
2-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 14/03 | Benfica B Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AD Marco 09 vs Pacos Ferreira?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Pacos Ferreira win (42%). Probabilities: AD Marco 09 29%, draw 29%, Pacos Ferreira 42%.
How many goals are expected in AD Marco 09 vs Pacos Ferreira?
The model expects 2.28 goals (AD Marco 09 1.01 · Pacos Ferreira 1.27), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in AD Marco 09 vs Pacos Ferreira?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.