Football · Portugal Liga 3 · 16/08, 18:00

Prediction: Sao Joao Ver vs AD Fafe

Team pages: Sao Joao Ver · AD Fafe

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.02Total
Sao Joao Ver0.82
AD Fafe1.2
1X2
25% 30% 45%
Sao Joao Ver Draw AD Fafe
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sao Joao Ver 5-4-1 (W-D-L)
DWWDDWWLWD
AD Fafe 3-4-3 (W-D-L)
DDWWLLLDWD
Head-to-head
Sao Joao Ver 3–3 AD Fafe (6 last)
  • AD Fafe1-2Sao Joao Ver
  • Sao Joao Ver1-0AD Fafe
  • Sao Joao Ver0-4AD Fafe
  • AD Fafe2-0Sao Joao Ver
  • Sao Joao Ver4-1AD Fafe
  • AD Fafe2-1Sao Joao Ver
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sao Joao Ver 1531 · AD Fafe 1523
Sao Joao VerDrawAD Fafe
Our model24%33%43%
Market26%28%46%
Estimated total (ours) 2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

  • Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Sao Joao VerAD Fafe
Goals for / against (FT)1.2 / 0.60.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)0.6 / 0.40.5 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)22/67/11%20/80/0%
Corners (HT / FT)2 / 4.22.6 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.4 / 0.14.7 / 0.3

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Joao Ver 303 AD Fafe

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DateHomeScoreAway
28/04/26
Portugal Liga 3
AD Fafe1-2
HT 1-1
Sao Joao Ver
21/02/26
Portugal Liga 3
Sao Joao Ver1-0
HT 0-0
AD Fafe
10/01/26
Portugal Liga 3
Sao Joao Ver0-4
HT 0-2
AD Fafe
05/10/25
Portugal Liga 3
AD Fafe2-0
HT 0-0
Sao Joao Ver
11/01/25
Portugal Liga 3
Sao Joao Ver4-1
HT 1-1
AD Fafe
28/09/24
Portugal Liga 3
AD Fafe2-1
HT 0-0
Sao Joao Ver

Standings · Portugal Liga 3 · Liga 3 26/27, Group A

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Paredes 2200 416
2 SC Vianense 2110 204
3 AD Marco 09 1100 213
4 Varzim 1100 103
5 Guimaraes B 2101 333
6 Sao Joao Ver 1010 111
7 Leca 2011 131
8 AD Fafe 1010 001
9 Pacos Ferreira 2002 130
10 Trofense 2002 030

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentSao Joao VerAD Fafe
AD Sanjoanense 2-1 W 3-2 W
Paredes 0-0 D 1-0 W
AD Marco 09 0-0 D 0-1 L
Braga B 1-0 W 0-0 D
Record vs common 2 W 2 D 0 L 2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sao Joao Ver (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sao Joao Ver

DWWDDWWLWD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
09/08 Leca
Portugal Liga 3
1-0 1-1 35 D
01/08 CF Os Marialvas
Europe Friendlies
1-0 2-0 60 W
03/07 Braga
Club Friendly List
0-1 L
03/05 AD Sanjoanense
Portugal Liga 3
1-1 2-1 14 W
28/04 AD Fafe
Portugal Liga 3
1-1 2-1 63 W
18/04 Paredes
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 0-0 56 D
12/04 AD Marco 09
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 0-0 211 D
21/03 Braga B
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 1-0 21 W
15/03 Paredes
Portugal Liga 3
0-1 3-1 36 W
08/03 Braga B
Portugal Liga 3
1-1 1-1 105 D

AD Fafe

DDWWLLLDWD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
09/08 SC Vianense
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 0-0 74 D
31/07 SC Maria da Fonte
Europe Friendlies
0-0 2-0 60 W
03/05 Braga B
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 0-0 28 D
28/04 Sao Joao Ver
Portugal Liga 3
1-1 1-2 73 L
23/04 SCU Torreense
Portugal Cup
0-0 0-2 35 L
18/04 AD Marco 09
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 0-1 56 L
11/04 AD Sanjoanense
Portugal Liga 3
3-0 3-2 18 W
22/03 Paredes
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 1-0 58 W
15/03 AD Marco 09
Portugal Liga 3
1-0 1-1 54 D
08/03 Paredes
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 0-0 34 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sao Joao Ver vs AD Fafe?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AD Fafe win (45%). Probabilities: Sao Joao Ver 25%, draw 30%, AD Fafe 45%.

How many goals are expected in Sao Joao Ver vs AD Fafe?

The model expects 2.02 goals (Sao Joao Ver 0.82 · AD Fafe 1.2), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sao Joao Ver vs AD Fafe?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.