Football · Portugal Liga 3 · 08/08, 12:00
Prediction: UD Oliveirense vs Louletano DC
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
UD Oliveirense1.49
Louletano DC0.94
1X2
UD Oliveirense
Draw
Louletano DC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
UD Oliveirense
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Louletano DC
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · UD Oliveirense 1455 · Louletano DC 1534
| UD Oliveirense | Draw | Louletano DC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 29% | 23% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Louletano DC (rating 1455 vs 1534).
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| UD Oliveirense | Louletano DC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.2 | 2.2 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 6.3 / 0.1 |
Standings · Portugal Liga 3 · Liga 3 26/27, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico CP Lisbon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Caldas SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CD Mafra | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | GD Vitoria de Sernache | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Louletano DC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lusitano GC Evora | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sporting Covilha | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | UD Oliveirense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | UD Santarem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UD Oliveirense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05 | Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-2 | 1-5 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Feirense Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 02/05 | Lusitania Lourosa Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 27/04 | Chaves Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 22/04 | Benfica B Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | Leixoes Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 03/04 | Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 21/03 | Maritimo Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 16/03 | FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 07/03 | SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
Louletano DC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 23/05 | Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 12 | W |
| 17/05 | AT Malveira Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 03/05 | Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | AT Malveira Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | AT Malveira Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 12/04 | Vasco Da Gama Vidigueira Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
2-1 | 5-2 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 04/04 | Moncarapachense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 28/03 | Alcochetense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UD Oliveirense vs Louletano DC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a UD Oliveirense win (49%). Probabilities: UD Oliveirense 49%, draw 27%, Louletano DC 23%.
How many goals are expected in UD Oliveirense vs Louletano DC?
The model expects 2.43 goals (UD Oliveirense 1.49 · Louletano DC 0.94), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in UD Oliveirense vs Louletano DC?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.