Football · Portugal Liga 3 · 08/08, 21:00
Prediction: CD Mafra vs GD Vitoria de Sernache
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
CD Mafra1.53
GD Vitoria de Sernache0.89
1X2
CD Mafra
Draw
GD Vitoria de Sernache
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
CD Mafra
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
GD Vitoria de Sernache
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CD Mafra
2–0
GD Vitoria de Sernache
(2 last)
- CD Mafra5-1GD Vitoria de Sernache
- GD Vitoria de Sernache0-1CD Mafra
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CD Mafra 1519 · GD Vitoria de Sernache 1547
| CD Mafra | Draw | GD Vitoria de Sernache | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 28% | 21% |
| Market | 52% | 26% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours CD Mafra: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CD Mafra | GD Vitoria de Sernache | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/44/22% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.9 | 2 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.1 | 4.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Mafra 2–0–0 GD Vitoria de Sernache
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/17 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | CD Mafra | 5-1 | GD Vitoria de Sernache |
| 26/03/17 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | GD Vitoria de Sernache | 0-1 | CD Mafra |
Standings · Portugal Liga 3 · Liga 3 26/27, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico CP Lisbon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Caldas SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CD Mafra | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | GD Vitoria de Sernache | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Louletano DC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lusitano GC Evora | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sporting Covilha | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | UD Oliveirense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | UD Santarem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CD Mafra
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | SU Sintrense Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Alverca Europe Friendlies |
– | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 15/07 | FC Fredericia Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Esbjerg Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | CF Os Belenenses Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Academica Portugal Liga 3 |
2-0 | 3-3 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 03/05 | Guimaraes B Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Trofense Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 19/04 | Amarante Portugal Liga 3 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 11/04 | Varzim Portugal Liga 3 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
GD Vitoria de Sernache
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06 | Leca Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 31/05 | Louletano DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 23/05 | AT Malveira Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | Louletano DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 26/04 | Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Naval 1893 Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 12/04 | Mortagua FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 04/04 | Fatima Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 25/03 | Benfica e Castelo Branco Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CD Mafra vs GD Vitoria de Sernache?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Mafra win (52%). Probabilities: CD Mafra 52%, draw 27%, GD Vitoria de Sernache 21%.
How many goals are expected in CD Mafra vs GD Vitoria de Sernache?
The model expects 2.43 goals (CD Mafra 1.53 · GD Vitoria de Sernache 0.89), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in CD Mafra vs GD Vitoria de Sernache?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.