Football · Portugal Liga 3 · 09/08, 18:00

Prediction: AD Fafe vs SC Vianense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

AD Fafe1.58

SC Vianense1.04

1X2

49% 26% 24%

AD Fafe Draw SC Vianense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

AD Fafe 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLLLDW

SC Vianense 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWWLLW

Head-to-head

AD Fafe 3–1 SC Vianense (4 last)

SC Vianense0-2AD Fafe
AD Fafe2-0SC Vianense
SC Vianense0-1AD Fafe
AD Fafe0-1SC Vianense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Fafe 1510 · SC Vianense 1552

	AD Fafe	Draw	SC Vianense
Our model	49%	28%	24%
Market	50%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SC Vianense (rating 1510 vs 1552).
H2H favours AD Fafe: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Fafe	SC Vianense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	2.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	1.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	80/10/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.5	2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
09:59 +5’	1.80	3.50	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Fafe 3–0–1 SC Vianense

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
14/04/24 Portugal Liga 3	SC Vianense	0-2 HT 0-2	AD Fafe
16/03/24 Portugal Liga 3	AD Fafe	2-0 HT 0-0	SC Vianense
18/11/23 Portugal Liga 3	SC Vianense	0-1 HT 0-0	AD Fafe
08/08/23 Portugal Liga 3	AD Fafe	0-1 HT 0-0	SC Vianense

Standings · Portugal Liga 3 · Liga 3 26/27, Group A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Paredes	1	1	0	3	1	3
2	AD Fafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	AD Marco 09	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Trofense	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Pacos Ferreira	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Leca	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Sao Joao Ver	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	SC Vianense	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Varzim	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Guimaraes B	1	0	1	1	3	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

AD Fafe

WDDWWLLLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	SC Maria da Fonte Europe Friendlies	0-0	2-0	6	0	W
03/05	Braga B Portugal Liga 3	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
28/04	Sao Joao Ver Portugal Liga 3	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
23/04	SCU Torreense Portugal Cup	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
18/04	AD Marco 09 Portugal Liga 3	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
11/04	AD Sanjoanense Portugal Liga 3	3-0	3-2	1	8	W
22/03	Paredes Portugal Liga 3	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
15/03	AD Marco 09 Portugal Liga 3	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
08/03	Paredes Portugal Liga 3	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
01/03	AD Sanjoanense Portugal Liga 3	1-2	3-2	8	6	W

SC Vianense

WWWWLWWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	Rebordosa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
23/05	Braganca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
17/05	Leca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-3	3-4	3	6	L
10/05	Rebordosa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
03/05	Braganca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	6	8	W
26/04	Leca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	2-4	4	7	L
18/04	Limianos Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	4-1	5	3	W
12/04	Desportivo Moncao Portugal Campeonato Nacional	3-0	5-0	9	2	W
04/04	SC Mirandela Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	5	8	W
22/03	CD Ribeira Brava Portugal Campeonato Nacional	4-0	5-1	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Fafe vs SC Vianense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Fafe win (49%). Probabilities: AD Fafe 49%, draw 26%, SC Vianense 24%.

How many goals are expected in AD Fafe vs SC Vianense?

The model expects 2.62 goals (AD Fafe 1.58 · SC Vianense 1.04), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Fafe vs SC Vianense?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.