Football · Portugal Liga 3 · 08/08, 18:00
Prediction: Sporting Covilha vs UD Santarem
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.14Total
Sporting Covilha1.49
UD Santarem0.65
1X2
Sporting Covilha
Draw
UD Santarem
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 64%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Sporting Covilha
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
UD Santarem
0-5-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sporting Covilha
3–2–1
UD Santarem
(6 last)
- Sporting Covilha1-1UD Santarem
- UD Santarem1-1Sporting Covilha
- UD Santarem1-2Sporting Covilha
- Sporting Covilha0-1UD Santarem
- Sporting Covilha3-1UD Santarem
- UD Santarem0-1Sporting Covilha
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting Covilha (rating 1516 vs 1446).
- H2H favours Sporting Covilha: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sporting Covilha | UD Santarem | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.1 | 1.8 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.3 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Covilha 3–2–1 UD Santarem
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/12/25 Portugal Liga 3 | Sporting Covilha | 1-1 HT 0-1 | UD Santarem |
| 23/08/25 Portugal Liga 3 | UD Santarem | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Sporting Covilha |
| 29/03/25 Portugal Liga 3 | UD Santarem | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Sporting Covilha |
| 09/03/25 Portugal Liga 3 | Sporting Covilha | 0-1 HT 0-0 | UD Santarem |
| 25/01/25 Portugal Liga 3 | Sporting Covilha | 3-1 HT 1-0 | UD Santarem |
| 26/10/24 Portugal Liga 3 | UD Santarem | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Sporting Covilha |
Standings · Portugal Liga 3 · Liga 3 26/27, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico CP Lisbon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Caldas SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CD Mafra | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | GD Vitoria de Sernache | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Louletano DC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lusitano GC Evora | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sporting Covilha | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | UD Oliveirense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | UD Santarem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sporting Covilha
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05 | Amora Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Caldas SC Portugal Liga 3 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 18/04 | Lusitano GC Evora Portugal Liga 3 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 12/04 | Atletico CP Lisbon Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 21/03 | SU 1 Dezembro Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 14/03 | Lusitano GC Evora Portugal Liga 3 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 07/03 | SU 1 Dezembro Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 28/02 | Atletico CP Lisbon Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 22/02 | Caldas SC Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 15/02 | Amora Portugal Liga 3 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
UD Santarem
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Academica Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 16/05 | Varzim Portugal Liga 3 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 12 | 6 | D |
| 10/05 | Amarante Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | CF Os Belenenses Portugal Liga 3 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Academica Portugal Liga 3 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 19/04 | Guimaraes B Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 11/04 | Trofense Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 03/04 | CD Mafra Portugal Liga 3 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 21/03 | Varzim Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 10 | L |
| 14/03 | Amarante Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sporting Covilha vs UD Santarem?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sporting Covilha win (56%). Probabilities: Sporting Covilha 56%, draw 29%, UD Santarem 15%.
How many goals are expected in Sporting Covilha vs UD Santarem?
The model expects 2.14 goals (Sporting Covilha 1.49 · UD Santarem 0.65), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Sporting Covilha vs UD Santarem?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.