Football · Portugal Liga 3 · 09/08, 18:30

Prediction: Leca vs Sao Joao Ver

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

Leca1.22

Sao Joao Ver0.89

1X2

44% 30% 27%

Leca Draw Sao Joao Ver

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Leca 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWLWDD

Sao Joao Ver 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWDDWWLW

Head-to-head

Leca 0–2–0 Sao Joao Ver (2 last)

Sao Joao Ver1-1Leca
Leca0-0Sao Joao Ver

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leca 1539 · Sao Joao Ver 1539

	Leca	Draw	Sao Joao Ver
Our model	43%	32%	25%
Market	45%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leca	Sao Joao Ver
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	11/78/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.3	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
09:59 +7’	2.00	3.25	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leca 0–2–0 Sao Joao Ver

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/21 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Sao Joao Ver	1-1 HT 0-0	Leca
02/05/21 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Leca	0-0	Sao Joao Ver

Standings · Portugal Liga 3 · Liga 3 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Paredes	1	1	0	3	1	3
2	AD Fafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	AD Marco 09	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Trofense	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Pacos Ferreira	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Leca	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Sao Joao Ver	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	SC Vianense	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Varzim	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Guimaraes B	1	0	1	1	3	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Leca

LWWWDWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Lusitania Lourosa Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
10/06	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
31/05	Braganca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
22/05	Rebordosa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-2	6	5	L
17/05	SC Vianense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	3-1	4-3	4	6	W
10/05	Braganca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-1	8	7	D
03/05	Rebordosa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
26/04	SC Vianense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	4-2	5	7	W
18/04	SC Vila Real Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
12/04	Rebordosa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	10	7	L

Sao Joao Ver

LDWWDDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	CF Os Marialvas Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
03/07	Braga Club Friendly List	–	0-1	–	–	L
03/05	AD Sanjoanense Portugal Liga 3	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
28/04	AD Fafe Portugal Liga 3	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
18/04	Paredes Portugal Liga 3	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
12/04	AD Marco 09 Portugal Liga 3	0-0	0-0	2	11	D
21/03	Braga B Portugal Liga 3	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
15/03	Paredes Portugal Liga 3	0-1	3-1	3	6	W
08/03	Braga B Portugal Liga 3	1-1	1-1	10	5	D
01/03	AD Marco 09 Portugal Liga 3	1-1	1-2	3	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leca vs Sao Joao Ver?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leca win (44%). Probabilities: Leca 44%, draw 30%, Sao Joao Ver 27%.

How many goals are expected in Leca vs Sao Joao Ver?

The model expects 2.11 goals (Leca 1.22 · Sao Joao Ver 0.89), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Leca vs Sao Joao Ver?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.