Football · Finland Kolmonen · 19/07, 17:30
Prediction: Hercules II vs KePS
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.12Total
Hercules II2.07
KePS2.05
1X2
Hercules II
Draw
KePS
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 63%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Hercules II
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
KePS
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hercules II 1477 · KePS 1522
| Hercules II | Draw | KePS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 22% | 39% |
| Market | 40% | 21% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.12 goals · Bet365 line 4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KePS (rating 1477 vs 1522).
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hercules II | KePS | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.7 | 2.8 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 43/14/43% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.3 | 2.2 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.2 | 4.2 / 0 |
Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, North Group
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kajha | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 35 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | HauPa | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 12 | 15 |
| 3 | KePS | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 15 | 14 |
| 4 | KaPa Kajaani | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 12 | 13 |
| 5 | RoPo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Ajax Sarkkiranta | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
| 7 | Villan Pojat | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 13 | 12 |
| 8 | Hercules-J | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 11 |
| 9 | Santa Claus | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 6 |
| 10 | PonPa | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 51 | 2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hercules II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05 | Atletico Saguntino Spain Tercera Group 6 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | UD Castellonense Spain Tercera Group 6 |
1-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Ontinyent Spain Tercera Group 6 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Villarreal C Spain Tercera Group 6 |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 15/04 | Soneja Spain Tercera Group 6 |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 12/04 | La Nucia Spain Tercera Group 6 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 04/04 | Crevillente Spain Tercera Group 6 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 25/03 | CD Roda Spain Tercera Group 6 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 21/03 | CD Bunol Spain Tercera Group 6 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 15/03 | Utiel Spain Tercera Group 6 |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
KePS
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Villan Pojat Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 05/07 | Kajha Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 4-3 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 24/06 | Santa Claus Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 18/06 | Ajax Sarkkiranta Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | HauPa Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | RoPo Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | KaPa Kajaani Finland Kolmonen |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | PonPa Finland Kolmonen |
– | 11-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | Hercules-J Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 26/03 | RoPo Finland Cup |
2-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hercules II vs KePS?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hercules II win (40%). Probabilities: Hercules II 40%, draw 22%, KePS 39%.
How many goals are expected in Hercules II vs KePS?
The model expects 4.12 goals (Hercules II 2.07 · KePS 2.05), with a 51% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Hercules II vs KePS?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.