Football · Finland Kolmonen · 29/07, 17:30

Prediction: IPS Edustus vs KJP

Team pages: IPS Edustus · KJP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.58Total

IPS Edustus2.18

KJP1.41

1X2

55% 21% 24%

IPS Edustus Draw KJP

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

IPS Edustus 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDDWWL

KJP 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWLLWL

Head-to-head

IPS Edustus 3–1–2 KJP (6 last)

KJP0-1IPS Edustus
KJP5-1IPS Edustus
IPS Edustus3-2KJP
KJP4-6IPS Edustus
KJP4-3IPS Edustus
KJP2-2IPS Edustus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IPS Edustus 1559 · KJP 1499

	IPS Edustus	Draw	KJP
Our model	54%	22%	24%
Market	55%	20%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.58 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IPS Edustus (rating 1559 vs 1499).
H2H favours IPS Edustus: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IPS Edustus	KJP
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.5	1.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/25/25%	38/25/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 7.3	1.6 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.50

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
09:49 +15’	1.61	4.50	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IPS Edustus 3–1–2 KJP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	KJP	0-1	IPS Edustus
14/08/25 Finland Kolmonen	KJP	5-1	IPS Edustus
16/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	IPS Edustus	3-2 HT 1-0	KJP
19/08/23 Finland Kolmonen	KJP	4-6 HT 3-4	IPS Edustus
11/06/22 Finland Kolmonen	KJP	4-3 HT 1-2	IPS Edustus
16/07/21 Finland Kolmonen	KJP	2-2 HT 2-1	IPS Edustus

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kultsu FC	12	9	2	1	36	9	29
2	IPS Edustus	12	8	3	1	27	15	27
3	PeKa	12	8	2	2	37	17	26
4	MiPK	12	7	2	3	31	18	23
5	HaPK	12	7	1	4	28	21	22
6	LAUTP	12	5	2	5	25	26	17
7	KoPa	12	5	2	5	17	23	17
8	KJP	12	5	1	6	19	16	16
9	MP II	12	5	0	7	25	23	15
10	Edustus STPS	12	2	1	9	13	28	7
11	Kumu	12	2	1	9	15	45	7
12	LAUTP II	12	0	1	11	4	36	1

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IPS Edustus	KJP
MP II	1-2 L	3-1 W
LAUTP	6-2 W	2-2 D
HaPK	3-2 W	0-2 L
PeKa	3-3 D	2-0 W
Edustus STPS	2-2 D	1-3 L
MiPK	3-2 W	1-3 L
LAUTP II	2-0 W	1-0 W
Kumu	2-1 W	4-0 W
Kultsu FC	1-1 D	1-3 L
KoPa	1-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	6 W 3 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: IPS Edustus (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IPS Edustus

WDWWWDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	MP II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
01/07	LAUTP Finland Kolmonen	–	6-2	–	–	W
27/06	HaPK Finland Kolmonen	–	3-2	–	–	W
16/06	PeKa Finland Kolmonen	–	3-3	–	–	D
11/06	Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen	–	2-2	–	–	D
05/06	MiPK Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-2	11	5	W
28/05	LAUTP II Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
23/05	Kumu Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
13/05	Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
08/05	KoPa Finland Kolmonen	–	1-0	–	–	W

KJP

WDWLWWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	HaPK Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
02/07	PeKa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	2	8	W
27/06	Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
17/06	MiPK Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-3	5	2	L
11/06	LAUTP II Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
06/06	Kumu Finland Kolmonen	–	4-0	–	–	W
28/05	Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-3	5	3	L
22/05	KoPa Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	5	3	W
14/05	LAUTP Finland Kolmonen	2-2	2-2	8	2	D
06/05	MP II Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-1	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IPS Edustus vs KJP?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IPS Edustus win (55%). Probabilities: IPS Edustus 55%, draw 21%, KJP 24%.

How many goals are expected in IPS Edustus vs KJP?

The model expects 3.58 goals (IPS Edustus 2.18 · KJP 1.41), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in IPS Edustus vs KJP?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.