Football · Finland Kolmonen · 28/07, 18:30

Prediction: SalPa 2 vs VG-62

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

SalPa 21.73

VG-621.53

1X2

42% 24% 34%

SalPa 2 Draw VG-62

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

SalPa 2 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDLWDWLD

VG-62 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWLWLW

Head-to-head

SalPa 2 0–1–4 VG-62 (5 last)

VG-622-1SalPa 2
SalPa 23-4VG-62
VG-622-1SalPa 2
VG-622-2SalPa 2
SalPa 20-2VG-62

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SalPa 2 1501 · VG-62 1525

	SalPa 2	Draw	VG-62
Our model	42%	25%	33%
Market	43%	23%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours VG-62: 4-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SalPa 2	VG-62
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/56/33%	38/25/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.4	1.5 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.90

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:01 +2’	2.10	3.90	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SalPa 2 0–1–4 VG-62

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	VG-62	2-1 HT 0-0	SalPa 2
06/08/25 Finland Kolmonen	SalPa 2	3-4 HT 2-1	VG-62
29/04/25 Finland Kolmonen	VG-62	2-1 HT 1-1	SalPa 2
07/03/25 Finland Cup	VG-62	2-2 HT 1-0	SalPa 2
16/08/24 Finland Kolmonen	SalPa 2	0-2 HT 0-1	VG-62

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Mariehamn II	12	10	0	2	34	11	30
2	EuPa	12	8	2	2	24	8	26
3	PIF Parainen	11	7	2	2	24	10	23
4	VG-62	11	7	0	4	17	12	21
5	SalPa 2	12	5	3	4	16	15	18
6	KaaPo	12	6	0	6	24	24	18
7	MaPS	12	5	2	5	20	21	17
8	Peimari United	12	2	7	3	18	17	13
9	LTU	12	3	2	7	8	16	11
10	PiPS	12	2	2	8	10	25	8
11	JyTy	12	2	2	8	13	33	8
12	ACF	12	1	4	7	8	24	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SalPa 2	VG-62
Peimari United	1-1 D	1-3 L
JyTy	2-3 L	1-0 W
KaaPo	2-0 W	1-3 L
MaPS	4-2 W	1-0 W
EuPa	0-1 L	2-1 W
ACF	0-0 D	3-0 W
PiPS	2-1 W	3-0 W
LTU	1-0 W	1-2 L
IFK Mariehamn II	1-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: VG-62 (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SalPa 2

LWWDLWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
01/07	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	9	5	L
23/06	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
14/06	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
02/06	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	4-2	3	0	W
30/05	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
22/05	ACF Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
12/05	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	12	4	W
09/05	LTU Finland Kolmonen	–	1-0	–	–	W
02/05	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-4	4	5	L

VG-62

WWLWLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	ACF Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
26/06	LTU Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
17/06	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-0	2	3	W
13/06	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
05/06	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
29/05	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
22/05	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
14/05	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
02/05	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	–	1-0	–	–	W
24/04	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-1	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SalPa 2 vs VG-62?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SalPa 2 win (42%). Probabilities: SalPa 2 42%, draw 24%, VG-62 34%.

How many goals are expected in SalPa 2 vs VG-62?

The model expects 3.26 goals (SalPa 2 1.73 · VG-62 1.53), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SalPa 2 vs VG-62?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.