Football · Finland Kolmonen · 28/07, 17:30

Prediction: HaPK vs KoPa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.84Total

HaPK2.65

KoPa1.19

1X2

68% 17% 15%

HaPK Draw KoPa

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

HaPK 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLWLLW

KoPa 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWDWWLWD

Head-to-head

HaPK 2–1–1 KoPa (4 last)

KoPa0-2HaPK
KoPa1-1HaPK
KoPa3-2HaPK
HaPK3-1KoPa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HaPK 1533 · KoPa 1509

	HaPK	Draw	KoPa
Our model	68%	18%	14%
Market	69%	16%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.84 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours HaPK: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HaPK	KoPa
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 2.1	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.6	0.5 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/0/40%	25/25/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 6.2	2.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.75

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.90

2 (+1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.98

Under 41.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:02 +1’	1.30	5.75	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HaPK 2–1–1 KoPa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	KoPa	0-2	HaPK
29/04/23 Finland Kolmonen	KoPa	1-1 HT 0-1	HaPK
24/09/22 Finland Kolmonen	KoPa	3-2 HT 2-1	HaPK
11/06/22 Finland Kolmonen	HaPK	3-1 HT 1-0	KoPa

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kultsu FC	12	9	2	1	36	9	29
2	IPS Edustus	12	8	3	1	27	15	27
3	PeKa	12	8	2	2	37	17	26
4	MiPK	12	7	2	3	31	18	23
5	HaPK	12	7	1	4	28	21	22
6	LAUTP	12	5	2	5	25	26	17
7	KoPa	12	5	2	5	17	23	17
8	KJP	12	5	1	6	19	16	16
9	MP II	12	5	0	7	25	23	15
10	Edustus STPS	12	2	1	9	13	28	7
11	Kumu	12	2	1	9	15	45	7
12	LAUTP II	12	0	1	11	4	36	1

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HaPK	KoPa
KJP	2-0 W	0-4 L
MP II	1-4 L	3-1 W
IPS Edustus	2-3 L	0-1 L
LAUTP	5-2 W	2-0 W
PeKa	2-4 L	2-2 D
Edustus STPS	4-0 W	4-2 W
MiPK	4-3 W	0-4 L
LAUTP II	0-0 D	1-0 W
Kumu	5-1 W	2-0 W
Kultsu FC	0-4 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: HaPK (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HaPK

LWDWWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	KJP Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
03/07	MP II Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-4	10	1	L
27/06	IPS Edustus Finland Kolmonen	–	2-3	–	–	L
17/06	LAUTP Finland Kolmonen	2-0	5-2	5	6	W
13/06	PeKa Finland Kolmonen	–	2-4	–	–	L
06/06	Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen	–	4-0	–	–	W
28/05	MiPK Finland Kolmonen	4-0	4-3	3	5	W
23/05	LAUTP II Finland Kolmonen	–	0-0	–	–	D
17/05	Kumu Finland Kolmonen	–	5-1	–	–	W
06/05	Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-4	7	3	L

KoPa

LWLWDWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	PeKa Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-2	2	7	D
03/07	Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen	2-1	4-2	2	3	W
27/06	MiPK Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	6	5	L
18/06	LAUTP II Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
13/06	Kumu Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
05/06	Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen	0-2	2-2	3	4	D
29/05	LAUTP Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
22/05	KJP Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	5	3	L
15/05	MP II Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
08/05	IPS Edustus Finland Kolmonen	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HaPK vs KoPa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HaPK win (68%). Probabilities: HaPK 68%, draw 17%, KoPa 15%.

How many goals are expected in HaPK vs KoPa?

The model expects 3.84 goals (HaPK 2.65 · KoPa 1.19), with a 55% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in HaPK vs KoPa?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.