Football · Malawi Super League · 18/07, 14:30
Prediction: Creck SC vs Mitundu Baptist FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.11Total
Creck SC1.09
Mitundu Baptist FC1.02
1X2
Creck SC
Draw
Mitundu Baptist FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 65%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Creck SC
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Mitundu Baptist FC
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Creck SC 1434 · Mitundu Baptist FC 1488
| Creck SC | Draw | Mitundu Baptist FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 33% | 32% |
| Market | 36% | 31% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mitundu Baptist FC (rating 1434 vs 1488).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Creck SC | Mitundu Baptist FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.5 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 4.5 | 2.3 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.1 | 1.7 / 0.1 |
Standings · Malawi Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blue Eagles | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | Big Bullets | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Mighty Wanderers | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Silver Strikers | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 18 |
| 5 | Ekhaya FC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | Red Lions | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Masters FC | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 15 |
| 8 | Moyale Barracks | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 12 |
| 9 | Mitundu Baptist FC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 11 |
| 10 | Civil Service Utd | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 11 |
| 11 | Chitipa United | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 10 |
| 12 | MAFCO | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| 13 | Karonga United | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 9 |
| 14 | Dedza Dynamos | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 8 |
| 15 | Creck SC | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 5 |
| 16 | Kamuzu Barracks | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Creck SC | Mitundu Baptist FC |
|---|---|---|
| Civil Service Utd | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| Masters FC | 3-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Mighty Wanderers | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Blue Eagles | 0-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Moyale Barracks | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Kamuzu Barracks | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| MAFCO | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Red Lions | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 5 L | 3 W 1 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Creck SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Big Bullets Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 28/06 | Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 21/06 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 14/06 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Top 8 Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 23/05 | Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Kamuzu Barracks Malawi Super League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | MAFCO Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
Mitundu Baptist FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 27/06 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 21/06 | Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 11/05 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Kamuzu Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | MAFCO Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 30/08 | Mchinji Villa Malawi Challenge Cup |
1-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Creck SC vs Mitundu Baptist FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Creck SC win (36%). Probabilities: Creck SC 36%, draw 32%, Mitundu Baptist FC 32%.
How many goals are expected in Creck SC vs Mitundu Baptist FC?
The model expects 2.11 goals (Creck SC 1.09 · Mitundu Baptist FC 1.02), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Creck SC vs Mitundu Baptist FC?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.