Football · Malawi Super League · 18/07, 14:30
Prediction: Civil Service Utd vs Mighty Wanderers
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.83Total
Civil Service Utd0.64
Mighty Wanderers1.19
1X2
Civil Service Utd
Draw
Mighty Wanderers
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
Civil Service Utd
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Mighty Wanderers
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Civil Service Utd
1–1–4
Mighty Wanderers
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Civil Service Utd 1475 · Mighty Wanderers 1573
| Civil Service Utd | Draw | Mighty Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 33% | 48% |
| Market | 21% | 30% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.83 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mighty Wanderers (rating 1475 vs 1573).
- H2H favours Mighty Wanderers: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Civil Service Utd | Mighty Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1 | 2 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.9 / 2.3 | 2.9 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Civil Service Utd 1–1–4 Mighty Wanderers
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/25 Malawi Super League | Mighty Wanderers | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Civil Service Utd |
| 10/08/25 Malawi Super League | Civil Service Utd | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Mighty Wanderers |
| 23/08/24 Malawi Super League | Civil Service Utd | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Mighty Wanderers |
| 23/06/24 Malawi Super League | Mighty Wanderers | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Civil Service Utd |
| 16/04/23 Malawi Super League | Mighty Wanderers | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Civil Service Utd |
| 13/11/22 Malawi Super League | Mighty Wanderers | 3-4 HT 2-3 | Civil Service Utd |
Standings · Malawi Super League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blue Eagles | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | Big Bullets | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Mighty Wanderers | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Silver Strikers | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 18 |
| 5 | Ekhaya FC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | Red Lions | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Masters FC | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 15 |
| 8 | Moyale Barracks | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 12 |
| 9 | Mitundu Baptist FC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 11 |
| 10 | Civil Service Utd | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 11 |
| 11 | Chitipa United | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 10 |
| 12 | MAFCO | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| 13 | Karonga United | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 9 |
| 14 | Dedza Dynamos | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 8 |
| 15 | Creck SC | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 5 |
| 16 | Kamuzu Barracks | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Civil Service Utd | Mighty Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Creck SC | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Silver Strikers | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Mitundu Baptist FC | 0-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Karonga United | 0-1 L | 4-1 W |
| Chitipa United | 0-1 L | 4-0 W |
| Ekhaya FC | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Dedza Dynamos | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Big Bullets | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 3 L | 4 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Mighty Wanderers (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Civil Service Utd
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Blue Eagles Malawi Top 8 Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 05/07 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 28/06 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 20/06 | Silver Strikers Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 30/05 | Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 24/05 | Karonga United Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Chitipa United Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Big Bullets Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
Mighty Wanderers
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | MAFCO Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 28/06 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 20/06 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Creck SC Malawi Top 8 Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Chitipa United Malawi Super League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 27/05 | Karonga United Malawi Super League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Silver Strikers Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Big Bullets Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Civil Service Utd vs Mighty Wanderers?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Mighty Wanderers win (49%). Probabilities: Civil Service Utd 20%, draw 31%, Mighty Wanderers 49%.
How many goals are expected in Civil Service Utd vs Mighty Wanderers?
The model expects 1.83 goals (Civil Service Utd 0.64 · Mighty Wanderers 1.19), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Civil Service Utd vs Mighty Wanderers?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.