Prediction: Auckland FC vs Melbourne City
Team pages: Melbourne City
- Auckland FC1-1Melbourne City
- Auckland FC3-0Melbourne City
- Melbourne City2-1Auckland FC
- Auckland FC3-0Melbourne City
- Melbourne City2-2Auckland FC
| Auckland FC | Draw | Melbourne City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Market | 38% | 29% | 33% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melbourne City (rating 1473 vs 1514).
- H2H favours Auckland FC: 2-2-1.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Auckland FC | Melbourne City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.1 | 1.5 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.8 | 2.8 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0 | 3.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Auckland FC 2–2–1 Melbourne City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Australia A-League | Auckland FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Melbourne City |
| 28/02/26 Australia A-League | Auckland FC | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Melbourne City |
| 16/01/26 Australia A-League | Melbourne City | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Auckland FC |
| 18/01/25 Australia A-League | Auckland FC | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Melbourne City |
| 15/12/24 Australia A-League | Melbourne City | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Auckland FC |
Standings · Australia A-League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Auckland FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Brisbane Roar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Central Coast Mariners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Macarthur FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Melbourne City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Melbourne Victory | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Perth Glory | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sydney FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Auckland FC | Melbourne City |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney FC | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Adelaide United | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Central Coast Mariners | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Melbourne Victory | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Auckland FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Auckland FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 15/05 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 19/04 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 12 | 6 | L |
| 11/04 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 03/04 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 10 | D |
| 21/03 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 14/03 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
Melbourne City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 18/04 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 12/04 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 07/04 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 04/04 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 22/03 | Perth Glory Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 17/03 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 28/02 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 21/02 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Auckland FC vs Melbourne City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Auckland FC win (38%). Probabilities: Auckland FC 38%, draw 29%, Melbourne City 33%.
How many goals are expected in Auckland FC vs Melbourne City?
The model expects 2.59 goals (Auckland FC 1.34 · Melbourne City 1.24), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Auckland FC vs Melbourne City?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.