Football · Australia A-League · 25/10, 03:00
Prediction: Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners
Team pages: Wellington Phoenix · Central Coast Mariners
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.89Total
Wellington Phoenix1.75
Central Coast Mariners1.14
1X2
Wellington Phoenix
Draw
Central Coast Mariners
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Wellington Phoenix
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Central Coast Mariners
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Wellington Phoenix
2–3–1
Central Coast Mariners
(6 last)
- Wellington Phoenix3-1Central Coast Mariners
- Central Coast Mariners1-1Wellington Phoenix
- Wellington Phoenix0-0Central Coast Mariners
- Central Coast Mariners0-3Wellington Phoenix
- Central Coast Mariners2-1Wellington Phoenix
- Wellington Phoenix0-0Central Coast Mariners
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Wellington Phoenix 1516 · Central Coast Mariners 1498
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Central Coast Mariners | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Market | 51% | 25% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Wellington Phoenix: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Wellington Phoenix | Central Coast Mariners | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.6 | 1.3 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.1 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 7.2 | 1.1 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 3.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Wellington Phoenix 2–3–1 Central Coast Mariners
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/12/25 Australia A-League | Wellington Phoenix | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Central Coast Mariners |
| 02/11/25 Australia A-League | Central Coast Mariners | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Wellington Phoenix |
| 25/01/25 Australia A-League | Wellington Phoenix | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Central Coast Mariners |
| 10/11/24 Australia A-League | Central Coast Mariners | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Wellington Phoenix |
| 06/04/24 Australia A-League | Central Coast Mariners | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Wellington Phoenix |
| 06/02/24 Australia A-League | Wellington Phoenix | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Central Coast Mariners |
Standings · Australia A-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auckland FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Macarthur FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Wellington Phoenix | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Central Coast Mariners | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | Newcastle Jets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 6 | Sydney FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Adelaide United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Brisbane Roar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Melbourne Victory | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 | Melbourne City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Wellington Phoenix | Central Coast Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Victory | 2-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Macarthur FC | 0-4 L | 3-1 W |
| Melbourne City | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Brisbane Roar | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Perth Glory | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Adelaide United | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Auckland FC | 0-5 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 3 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Wellington Phoenix
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 24/04 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 12/04 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 05/04 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 21/03 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 14/03 | Perth Glory Australia A-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 06/03 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 01/03 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 21/02 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
0-4 | 0-5 | 6 | 6 | L |
Central Coast Mariners
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 10/04 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 07/04 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 04/04 | Perth Glory Australia A-League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 21/03 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 14/03 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 04/03 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 28/02 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Wellington Phoenix win (51%). Probabilities: Wellington Phoenix 51%, draw 25%, Central Coast Mariners 24%.
How many goals are expected in Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners?
The model expects 2.89 goals (Wellington Phoenix 1.75 · Central Coast Mariners 1.14), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.