Football · Australia A-League · 24/10, 10:40
Prediction: Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City
Team pages: Melbourne Victory · Melbourne City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.67Total
Melbourne Victory1.42
Melbourne City1.25
1X2
Melbourne Victory
Draw
Melbourne City
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Melbourne Victory
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Melbourne City
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Melbourne Victory
2–2–2
Melbourne City
(6 last)
- Melbourne City1-3Melbourne Victory
- Melbourne City0-1Melbourne Victory
- Melbourne Victory0-2Melbourne City
- Melbourne City1-0Melbourne Victory
- Melbourne Victory2-2Melbourne City
- Melbourne Victory1-1Melbourne City
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Melbourne Victory 1558 · Melbourne City 1497
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Melbourne City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melbourne Victory (rating 1558 vs 1497).
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Melbourne Victory | Melbourne City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.3 | 1.5 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.4 | 3 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne Victory 2–2–2 Melbourne City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 Australia A-League | Melbourne City | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Melbourne Victory |
| 20/12/25 Australia A-League | Melbourne City | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Melbourne Victory |
| 08/11/25 Australia A-League | Melbourne Victory | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Melbourne City |
| 31/05/25 Australia A-League | Melbourne City | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Melbourne Victory |
| 22/02/25 Australia A-League | Melbourne Victory | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Melbourne City |
| 21/12/24 Australia A-League | Melbourne Victory | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Melbourne City |
Standings · Australia A-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auckland FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Macarthur FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Wellington Phoenix | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Central Coast Mariners | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | Newcastle Jets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 6 | Sydney FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Adelaide United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Brisbane Roar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Melbourne Victory | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 | Melbourne City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Melbourne Victory | Melbourne City |
|---|---|---|
| Wellington Phoenix | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Sydney FC | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Western Sydney Wanderers | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Auckland FC | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Central Coast Mariners | 4-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Adelaide United | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Melbourne Victory
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 17/04 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 11/04 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 05/04 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 21/03 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
0-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 15/03 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 07/03 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 27/02 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
Melbourne City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 18/04 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 12/04 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 07/04 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 04/04 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 22/03 | Perth Glory Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 17/03 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 28/02 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Melbourne Victory win (41%). Probabilities: Melbourne Victory 41%, draw 27%, Melbourne City 33%.
How many goals are expected in Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City?
The model expects 2.67 goals (Melbourne Victory 1.42 · Melbourne City 1.25), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.