Football · Australia A-League · 25/10, 05:00
Prediction: Sydney FC vs Adelaide United
Team pages: Sydney FC · Adelaide United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.55Total
Sydney FC1.39
Adelaide United1.16
1X2
Sydney FC
Draw
Adelaide United
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Sydney FC
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Adelaide United
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sydney FC
3–1–2
Adelaide United
(6 last)
- Sydney FC1-2Adelaide United
- Adelaide United2-1Sydney FC
- Adelaide United2-3Sydney FC
- Sydney FC4-1Adelaide United
- Adelaide United3-3Sydney FC
- Sydney FC2-1Adelaide United
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sydney FC 1533 · Adelaide United 1604
| Sydney FC | Draw | Adelaide United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Market | 42% | 26% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Adelaide United (rating 1533 vs 1604).
- H2H favours Sydney FC: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sydney FC | Adelaide United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 1.5 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.1 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/80/10% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4 | 2.4 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0 | 4.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sydney FC 3–1–2 Adelaide United
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Australia A-League | Sydney FC | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Adelaide United |
| 17/10/25 Australia A-League | Adelaide United | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Sydney FC |
| 05/04/25 Australia A-League | Adelaide United | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Sydney FC |
| 01/02/25 Australia A-League | Sydney FC | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Adelaide United |
| 20/12/24 Australia A-League | Adelaide United | 3-3 HT 2-1 | Sydney FC |
| 17/02/24 Australia A-League | Sydney FC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Adelaide United |
Standings · Australia A-League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auckland FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Macarthur FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Wellington Phoenix | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Central Coast Mariners | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | Newcastle Jets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 6 | Sydney FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Adelaide United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Brisbane Roar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Melbourne Victory | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 | Melbourne City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sydney FC | Adelaide United |
|---|---|---|
| Western Sydney Wanderers | 0-0 D | 4-2 W |
| Auckland FC | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Newcastle Jets | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Melbourne Victory | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Sydney FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sydney FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 23/05 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 10 | D |
| 09/05 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Perth Glory Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 11/04 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 02/04 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 22/03 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
Adelaide United
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 8 | W |
| 19/04 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 03/04 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 10 | D |
| 20/03 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 14/03 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 06/03 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 27/02 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sydney FC vs Adelaide United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sydney FC win (41%). Probabilities: Sydney FC 41%, draw 28%, Adelaide United 31%.
How many goals are expected in Sydney FC vs Adelaide United?
The model expects 2.55 goals (Sydney FC 1.39 · Adelaide United 1.16), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Sydney FC vs Adelaide United?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.