Football · Australia A-League · 23/10, 11:00
Prediction: Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory
Team pages: Brisbane Roar · Perth Glory
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.92Total
Brisbane Roar1.64
Perth Glory1.28
1X2
Brisbane Roar
Draw
Perth Glory
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Brisbane Roar
0-5-5 (W-D-L)
Perth Glory
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Brisbane Roar
2–1–3
Perth Glory
(6 last)
- Perth Glory2-1Brisbane Roar
- Brisbane Roar1-1Perth Glory
- Perth Glory1-2Brisbane Roar
- Perth Glory1-3Brisbane Roar
- Brisbane Roar0-1Perth Glory
- Brisbane Roar2-4Perth Glory
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brisbane Roar 1497 · Perth Glory 1454
| Brisbane Roar | Draw | Perth Glory | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 27% | 29% |
| Market | 45% | 27% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brisbane Roar (rating 1497 vs 1454).
- H2H favours Perth Glory: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Brisbane Roar | Perth Glory | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.4 | 0.9 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brisbane Roar 2–1–3 Perth Glory
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Australia A-League | Perth Glory | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Brisbane Roar |
| 28/02/26 Australia A-League | Brisbane Roar | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Perth Glory |
| 16/01/26 Australia A-League | Perth Glory | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Brisbane Roar |
| 15/03/25 Australia A-League | Perth Glory | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Brisbane Roar |
| 21/12/24 Australia A-League | Brisbane Roar | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Perth Glory |
| 23/07/24 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying | Brisbane Roar | 2-4 HT 1-1 | Perth Glory |
Standings · Australia A-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sydney FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 1 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Adelaide United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Auckland FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Brisbane Roar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Central Coast Mariners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Macarthur FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Melbourne City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Melbourne Victory | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Newcastle Jets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Perth Glory | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Wellington Phoenix | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Brisbane Roar | Perth Glory |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne City | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Central Coast Mariners | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Sydney FC | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Wellington Phoenix | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 2 L | 0 W 3 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brisbane Roar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04 | Perth Glory Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 18/04 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 10/04 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 02/04 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 21/03 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 13/03 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 28/02 | Perth Glory Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 21/02 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/02 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 07/02 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
Perth Glory
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 04/04 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 22/03 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 14/03 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 08/03 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 28/02 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 20/02 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 13/02 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Brisbane Roar win (45%). Probabilities: Brisbane Roar 45%, draw 27%, Perth Glory 29%.
How many goals are expected in Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory?
The model expects 2.92 goals (Brisbane Roar 1.64 · Perth Glory 1.28), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.