Football · Australia A-League · 24/10, 06:00
Prediction: Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur FC
Team pages: Newcastle Jets · Macarthur FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.94Total
Newcastle Jets2.2
Macarthur FC1.73
1X2
Newcastle Jets
Draw
Macarthur FC
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
2-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Newcastle Jets
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Macarthur FC
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Newcastle Jets
2–1–3
Macarthur FC
(6 last)
- Macarthur FC3-2Newcastle Jets
- Newcastle Jets1-0Macarthur FC
- Newcastle Jets4-5Macarthur FC
- Newcastle Jets3-0Macarthur FC
- Macarthur FC3-3Newcastle Jets
- Newcastle Jets1-3Macarthur FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Newcastle Jets 1470 · Macarthur FC 1514
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Macarthur FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 22% | 30% |
| Market | 47% | 24% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Macarthur FC (rating 1470 vs 1514).
- H2H favours Macarthur FC: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newcastle Jets | Macarthur FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.3 | 2.7 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Newcastle Jets 2–1–3 Macarthur FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/26 Australia A-League | Macarthur FC | 3-2 HT 2-2 | Newcastle Jets |
| 22/02/26 Australia A-League | Newcastle Jets | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Macarthur FC |
| 26/12/25 Australia A-League | Newcastle Jets | 4-5 HT 1-2 | Macarthur FC |
| 24/08/25 Australia Cup | Newcastle Jets | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Macarthur FC |
| 28/03/25 Australia A-League | Macarthur FC | 3-3 HT 0-2 | Newcastle Jets |
| 12/01/25 Australia A-League | Newcastle Jets | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Macarthur FC |
Standings · Australia A-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auckland FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Macarthur FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Wellington Phoenix | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Central Coast Mariners | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | Newcastle Jets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 6 | Sydney FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Adelaide United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Brisbane Roar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Melbourne Victory | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 | Melbourne City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Newcastle Jets | Macarthur FC |
|---|---|---|
| Central Coast Mariners | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Melbourne Victory | 2-2 D | 1-4 L |
| Adelaide United | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Auckland FC | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Western Sydney Wanderers | 2-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Newcastle Jets (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newcastle Jets
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 10 | D |
| 09/05 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 17/04 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 11/04 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 02/04 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
2-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 22/03 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 14/03 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 07/03 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
Macarthur FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Perth Glory Australia A-League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 24/04 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 12/04 | Perth Glory Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 02/04 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
2-2 | 3-2 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 21/03 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 15/03 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
1-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 04/03 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 28/02 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 22/02 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Newcastle Jets win (47%). Probabilities: Newcastle Jets 47%, draw 23%, Macarthur FC 29%.
How many goals are expected in Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur FC?
The model expects 3.94 goals (Newcastle Jets 2.2 · Macarthur FC 1.73), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur FC?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.